Thursday, August 25, 2011

TY Nanmadol (Mina) Update #8

Typhoon Nanmadol (Bagyong Mina) is now rapidly intensifying east of Luzon. It was last located approximately 200km east of Casiguran, Aurora. Maximum sustained winds have increased to 210kph gusting to 260kph. It is now a Category 4 Typhoon! Mina is still moving west northwestward at 10kph although latest image shows a substantial wobble to the north.

Typhoon Nanmadol/Mina has moved west farther than what we've thought. It's actually close enough to be picked up by Baler Radar, image here taken from PAGASA (as of 3am PhT).

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We are still thinking Nanmadol will turn to the north. However, since it is now closer to Luzon, provinces of Cagayan, Isabela, and Aurora will likely experience typhoon-force conditions for the next 12 hours. If the west northwesterly movement continues, the closes point of approach (CPA) to Cagayan would be less than 150km. The slow movement of Nanmadol/Mina will mean stormy conditions will persists for Northeast Luzon for at least 24 hours. Please always follow official warnings and forecasts from PAGASA and your local government.

As of 5am today: Signal #3 is up for Cagayan, Isabela, and Northern Aurora. Signal #2 for Batanes, Calayan, Babuyan Group of Islands, Apayao, Kalina, Quirino, and the Rest of Aurora. Signal #1 for Ilocos Norte, Abra, Ilocos Sur, Mt. Province, Benguet, Ifugao, Nueva Vizcaya, and Nueva Ecija.

Latest forecasts from computer models still take Nanmadol northward towards Miyako-area just east of Taiwan. Most of them are still expecting a direct cyclone interaction with Talas by the middle of next week which will deflect Nanmadol's track to the east. Long range forecasts could take the typhoon south of Okinawa.

I will discuss more on these forecasts as well as updates on Tropcial Storm Talas later today at 3pm.
Issued (21 UTC) 5am PhT 082511

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