Thursday, August 25, 2011

TY Nanmadol (Mina) and TS Talas Update

Note: This is the text version of our tropical update. We have posted a video update earlier. This update will contain mostly the same things discussed in the video, so if you have time please watch the Video.

Typhoon Nanmadol (Bagyong Mina) continues to strengthen as it moves slowly across the Philippine Sea, east of Luzon. The typhoon was last located approximately 290km east of Casiguran, Aurora as well as 290km north northeast of Virac, Catanduanes. Maximum sustained winds have increased to 150kph gusting to 180kph. TY Nanmadol is moving west northwestward at 10kph.

Latest VIS and IR images show well defined eye with strong convective activity around it. The Central Dense Overcast that surrounds the center continues to expand and exhibit great organization as well. Wind shear continues to be light and westward, equatorward, and poleward outflow has been improving over the past couple of hours as well. Typhoon Nanmadol will be moving towards warm seas with high ocean heat content that will really help the system intensify significantly throughout the next 24 to 36 hours. It is very possible that Nanmadol will undergo a brief Rapid Intensification (RI) as it passes through these waters.

Lots of things to go through so let's begin!

Typhoon Nanmadol (Mina)

As for the track, Nanmadol has been moving westward farther and longer than what we have previously thought. For those in Luzon, it looks very eery and threatening. Fortunately, we don't really expect the typhoon to barrel towards Luzon. A trough over Southeastern China should slowly lift Nanmadol towards the north. However, it is highly likely that the eastern sections of Luzon could feel tropical storm force winds for the next 1 to 2 days. Provinces such as Cagayan, Isabela, and Aurora are the places that could see some of the strongest winds. Heavy rain will also be a factor for these areas with amounts of 100-200mm in 24 hours.

Based on these developments, PAGASA has raised Public Signal Warning #2 for Northern Aurora, Isabela, and Cagayan. Signal #1 is in effect for Rest of Aurora, Nueva Ecjia, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, Ifugao, Mt. Province, Kalinga, Apayao, Calayan, Babuyan, and Batanes Group of Islands.

Now as far as future track goes, computer models remain in disagreement. Some models take Nanmadol towards Taiwan while some recurves it early enough to avoid Okinawa. As I have been saying all week, the track will depend significantly on a potential Direct Cyclone Interaction (DCI) or Fujiwhara effect with Talas. Trends among the models, though, have actually lessened the effect of this scenario. The track consensus have actually been shifting more to the north for the past day or so.

My forecast track takes Nanmadol just east of Cagayan by late Friday with a closest approach of around 200km. This means that provinces in the NE Luzon area have high chances of seeings tropical storm force sustained winds with possible typhoon force gusts (around 120kph). Rough surf and storm surge will also be a threat so please stay away from the ocean!

Favorable conditions should allow Nanmadol to really intensify for the next 2 days, perhaps becoming a Category 3 typhoon as early as Saturday.

I have also plotted my forecast for Tropical Storm Talas from the above map. As you can see it also has a chance of becoming a typhoon within the next 3 days. I don't think these two typhoons will be close enough to actually exert significant influence to each other. However, the massive circulation of Talas and the increasing strength of Nanmadol could still deflect the tracks of each other that is why I want the readers (YOU) to carefully pay attention to these two storms!

Tropical Storm Talas

Before I end, let me give you brief updates on Tropical Storm Talas. It was located approximately 780km northwest of Guam. Maximum sustained winds have increased to 75kph gusting to around 100kph. Please keep in mind that these wind estimates are from the JMA. JTWC is also classifying this as a TS but with slightly less winds. Nevertheless, both agencies do expect Talas to become a typhoon this weekend. Forecasts take this storm north although how close this will get to Mainland Japan (Honshu) remains a mystery.

We will have another update at around 12am tonight (Philippine Time).

Also, I have created twitter page for Sa Gitna ng Bagyo. This is still in the early phase since I'm still experimenting with this new feature so updates may not come on time. Nevertheless, please follow me here:
Issued (09 UTC) 5pm PhT 082511

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