Monday, August 22, 2011

Tropical Depression 14W (Mina) Update #1

Tropical Depression 14W (Bagyong Mina) has really consolidated overnight while east of the Philippines. The center was last located approximately 390km east northeast of Virac, Catanduanes. Maximum sustained winds are now at 45kph gusting to 65kph. TD 14W/Mina is moving north northeastward at around 10kph.

Recent IR image continues to show vigorous convective activity, particularly on the western side of the center. Wind shear and sea temperatures continue to be favorable for further development. 14W could intensify into a tropical storm within 24 hours.

Solutions from computer models continue to widely vary. What we do know now is that TD 14W won't make landfall in the Philippines; it will move generally to the northeast. The forecasts beyond 3 days, however, is still up in the air. A developing monsoon gyre with a circulation just west of Guam will greatly influence 14W's future track. This feature will, of course, have to be tracked.

Next update will be 3pm today.
Issued (22 UTC) 6am PhT 082311

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