Saturday, August 27, 2011

Typhoon Nanmadol (Mina) Update #18

Typhoon Nanmadol (Mina) has weakened slightly as it moves slowly across the Babuyan Channel. The center of circulation was last located approximately 80km southwest of Basco, Batanes or about 120km north northwest of Aparri. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to 185kph gusting to 230kph. Nanmadol/Mina is moving northward at 10kph.

As of 5am today, here are the Signal Warnings released by PAGASA:
Signal #3: Northern Cagayan, Batanes-Calayan-Babuyan Group of Islands
Signal #2: Ilocos Norte, Abra, Apayao, Kalinga, Rest of Cagayan
Signal #3: Ilocos Sur, La Union, Mt. Province, Benguet, Ifugao, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, Isabela, Northern Aurora

Latest IR image from NRLMRY (seen below) shows a new blow up of convection right over the center. As we mentioned yesterday, Nanmadol still has a slight chance of re-intensifying back into Category 4 today and it seems it is trying to do so. Waters here are still very warm and wind shear is still weak so our typhoon still has about 24 hours of favorable conditions that could allow it to intensify again.

The Philippines, particularly Northern Luzon will continue experiencing tropical storm conditions with some gusts that could occasionally reach typhoon force (around 120kph). Rainfall amounts of 100-200mm will also continue falling particularly in the western sections and the mountainous regions.

Likewise, the SW Monsoon will continue affecting parts of Southern Luzon and Visayas bringing light to moderate rains with occasional thunderstorms.

Taiwan is also beginning to feel the effects of Nanmadol with outer rain bands now beginning to make their way towars the southern and central portion of that country. As seen in this radar image from CWB below, we can see bands of moderate rain with some pockets of very heavy rain with thunderstorms. These could cause flashfloods and landslides

Forecasts continue to bring Nanmadol towards Taiwan by Monday night as a Category 3. It could then move westward across the Taiwan Strait and into Southeastern China as a Tropical Storm late next week.

An update here in the US: we are now slowly feeling the first effects from Hurricane Irene. As you can see, we still have power here but there is a likelihood of power outages later today so please do understand if I decide not to make a Video Update for today. I will, however, try to put up a complete Text Update at 3pm today.
Issued (22 UTC) 6am PhT 082811

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