Saturday, August 27, 2011

TY Nanmadol (Mina) | TS Talas Update

Typhoon Nanmadol was last located, as of 4pm today, approximately 40km north northwest of Sta. Ana, Cagayan or about 60km northeast of Aparri. Maximum sustained winds still around 205kph gusting to 250kph. Nanmadol is now beginning to move north northwestward very slowly at around 10kph.

Nanmadol made landfall earlier near Sta Ana/Gonzaga Area in Cagayan. Now weakened to a Cat 3 as it exits into water. Reports of 2 dead already due to landslides. Rainfall reports across Luzon range from 80 to 200mm so definitely the area got soaked with moderate to heavy rain!

A recent Microwave Image from NRLMRY shows the inner core suffered from the land interaction and is partially open to the west. You can still see some intense convection on the eastern side, however. As it moves over the warm waters near Babuyan, there is a chance Mina could re-intensify back into Category 4 later tonight.

If you’re Taiwan, you might wanna prepare now. Timing for deteriorating conditions would begin Sunday midday and continuing through Monday night (perhaps early Tuesday). Possibility of heavy rain with some tornadic activities could induce urban flooding and major landslides.

Here is the latest radar image from Central Weather Bureau and you can already see the outer rain bands beginning to move their way into Southern Taiwan. Moderate rains with some pockets of heavy rain that could bring floods, landslides, and some strong gusty winds embedded along these thunderstorms.

As for Okinawa, there is still some chance Nanmadol could turn northeastward while of east of Taiwan so you might want to keep monitoring this storm!

Here is my personal forecast (NOT OFFICIAL!)

TS Talas, on the other hand, is struggling to intensify due to dry air but it is still expected to intensify into a strong typhoon early next week. Still some major model disagreements but the consensus is to take Talas to the north. I’m still putting Southern Honshu under medium chance of seeing stormy conditions late next week. Please keep in mind though that this system still has a long way to go so expect tracks to shift constantly. Just keep monitoring and likewise, we will let you know if there are significant developments and changes with the track.

My personal forecast track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Finally you might have heard that Hurricane Irene is moving towards New York–where I am based. There is a high chance that my area will lose power by the time Irene gets here so I might not be able to post any videos or text updates. I will post any developments here regarding the status of updates. In case I lose power tomorrow, you can head to for the latest updates.

For tonight, I will probably put up a text update by 9pm.
Issued (0845 UTC) 4:45pm PhT 082711

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