Sunday, August 28, 2011

TY Nanmadol (Mina) and TS Talas Update

Hello! We still have power here so I'm gonna put up this quick update on the West Pacific.

Typhoon Nanmadol (Bagyong Mina) was last located approximately 90km west of Basco, Batanes. Maximum sustained winds still at 165kph gusting to 200kph. Nanmadol is moving north northwestward at 10kph.

As of 11am today, here are PAGASA's Signal Warnings:
Signal #3: Batanes Group of Islands
Signal #2: Babuyan-Calayan Group of Islands, Ilocos Norte
Signal #1: Cagayan, Apayao, Abra, Ilocos Sur

Batanes will continue experiencing typhoon winds for at least 6 hours. They will also get some very heavy rain with amounts of up to 200mm in 24 hours. Areas under Signal #2 will get at least tropical storm winds of up to 100kph with rainfall amounts of up to 100-200mm in 24 hours. Signal #1 will experience gale force winds of up to 50 to 60kph. These stormy conditions for much of Northern Luzon will still continue for at least 12 hours.

Rest of Luzon and Visayas will experience scattered rain showers with occasional thunderstorms due to the SW Monsoon. Mindanao slightly clearer weather but can't rule out a shower or two. Light amounts of rain for these areas.

Taiwan will now begin to experience typhoon winds of up to 150kph. Latest radar from CWB show the heavier rains in red:

 Some areas in S Taiwan now experiencing tropical storm conditions and I do expect the weather there to continue going downhill. Please be careful if you're in Taiwan!!

Forecasts continue to shift westward. We now think Nanmadol will make landfall in Southern Taiwan by Monday very early morning. It will pass near Kaohsiung and then exit into Luzon Strait by Tuesday as a tropical storm. It will then make another landfall in Fujian Province in SE China by Wednesday. It will move south of Xiamen and north of Shantou. It will then weaken to a tropical depression and then eventually dissipate late next week (Friday).

Personal forecast for Nanmadol (Note: NOT OFFICIAL)

Tropical Storm Talas still struggling to intensify further as it remains stationary well south of Japan. Winds around 100kph gusting to 150kph. Still forecast to intensify into a typhoon perhaps as early as tomorrow. Latest computer model forecasts now put the Kanto Region under a medium to high risk of seeing some stormy conditions next week. We forecast Talas to continue  moving northward, intensifying along the way. It could become a Category 2 as it moves less than 400km southwest of Tokyo by that time. There are still LOTS OF TIME to go so do expect the forecasts to change.

My Personal Forecast for Talas (NOT OFFICIAL)

Winds here in New York are getting stronger by the minute. Power outages are now occurring left and right in my area but thankfully we still have power. I will try to put up an update by 6pm today (Philippine Time) if you don't see that here, that means my power is out. I don't know when it will go back so please if it occurs just consult your official forecasting agencies (JMA for JAPAN, CWB for TAIWAN, or PAGASA for the Philippines). You can also go to for occasional updates.

Please hope (and pray) Irene doesn't do much damage here.
Issued (0730 UTC) 330pm PhT 082811

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