Tuesday, August 23, 2011

Tropical Storm Nanmadol (Mina) Update #3

Tropical Storm Nanmadol  (Bagyong Mina) has quickly strengthened over the past 12 hours and continues to exhibit improving organization. It was last located approximately 450km northeast of Virac, Catanduanes. Maximum sustained winds are now at 85kph gusting to 110kph. Nanmadol/Mina continues remain nearly stationary.

Latest IR images show improving organization and flaring convection. Cloud tops colder than -80C continue to blow near and around the low-level center. Wind shear and sea temperatures continue to be very favorable for further intensification.

Computer model forecasts continue to swing from one solution to another. Most of them do think Nanmadol will continue strengthening, perhaps reaching typhoon strength in 2 to 3 days' time. Much of the forecast still relies on the future development on 97W.
As for 97W, a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert is now has now been issued by the JTWC. This means 97W has a "HIGH" chance of becoming a cyclone within the next 24 hours. JMA has actually gone ahead and begun to classify 97W as a Tropical Depression.

The system remains west northwest of Guam with improved consolidation and convective actiivity throughout last nigh. We expect this to continue and should become a depression as early as today. This will have a direct influence on TS Nanmadol's future track so we really have to monitor both systems.

Next update will be around 3pm today.
Issued (2130 UTC) 530am PhT 082411

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