Wednesday, August 24, 2011

Typhoon Nanmadol (Mina) Update #5

Nanmadol (Bagyong Mina) continues to intensify and is now a typhoon according to the JTWC. Maximum sustained winds are now at 120kph gusting to 150kph. Nanmadol/Mina continues to move westward at a very slow pace of 5kph. Mina was last located approximately 340km northeast of Virac, Catanduanes or about 330km east of Casiguran, Aurora.

Latest microwave image is now showing an established eyewall. This feature is now beginning to be visible on the satellite. We do expect further intensification due to the very warm waters east of Luzon. Wind shear continues to be light (around 10kts).

Rains continue to be well offshore of the Philippines, despite the continued westward movement. High surf and violent seas will, however, continue affecting the eastern seaboard of Luzon including Cagayan Aurora, Isabela, Quezon, Polilio Island, and the Bicol Region. There could be occasional rains and gusty winds due to some outer rainbands making their way from Nanmadol's huge circulation.

Computer model forecasts continue to diverge significantly but I am becoming more confident on the following scenario: Typhoon Nanmadol will continue drifting east of Luzon. It is possible it will be close enough to the Philippines on Thursday that Signal Warning #1 might be needed. Rainfall amounts could be around 50-100mm.

By Thursday, it should begin turning northward as a cyclone developing west of the Marianas strengthens (Invest 97W). This future storm will then influence Nanmadol's track. There is increasing chance that Taiwan and Okinawa will feel some tropical storm conditions beginning Saturday. The exact track, however, is still up in the air. As I said, this will all depend on a developing system outside the PAR. Latest VIS and IR Image now showing a very huge cloud circulation with banding now occurring. It is possible that this system will be upgraded to a tropical depression tonight.

Please stay tuned for the latest update. We will have another update by around 12pm today. Hopefully, I will be able to put up a video by this afternoon; I apologize for not having done one yesterday.
Issued (2230 UTC) 630am PhT 082511

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