Thursday, August 18, 2011

Tropical Update

The Western Pacific is still quiet in terms of cyclone activity and we still don't have a genuine threat right now. The computer models, however, are slowly converging into the idea of a possible storm forming this weekend or early next week outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility. Most Global Models still have major differences although it should be noted that at least 4 of the models we use show some kind of a tropical storm by next week. The eventual track, of course, is still very much up in the air.

Right now, just scattered showers and thunderstorms for the Philippines due to the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone affecting the country. Moderate rain also lingering in Guangdong and Hainan Provinces in Southern China bringing 50 to 100mm of rain in 24 hours. Disturbed weather in the middle of the W. Pacific (around Marianas) due to converging winds along the monsoon trough. This is where the next cyclone could form as highlighted in the Satellite Analysis below (image from NOAA):.

Issued (0830 UTC) 430pm PhT 081811

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