Sunday, August 21, 2011

Tropical Update ("Mina")

There is a high chance for a tropical cyclone forming east of the Philippines within the next 24 hours.

Invest 96W was last located approximately 320km east of Virac, Catanduanes. Maximum sustained winds are around 40kph with a minimum pressure of 1004mb. Invest 96W continues to develop slowly with banding now beginning to form on the microwave. IR imagery also continues to depict numerous convective bursts, especially on the western side of the circulation.

IR image from NRLMRY

JTWC has issued a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (TCFA) for 96W which means it has a "HIGH" chance of becoming a cyclone within 24 hours. JMA has already upgraded this to a Tropical Depression. Same thing for PAGASA which has named this system Tropical Depression Mina.

Computer models continue to develop 96W into a strong tropical storm by the middle of next week. It is not forecast to make landfall in the Philippines although as it is developing close to the eastern coast, areas such as the Bicol Region, Visayas particularly Samar and Leyte, could get heavy rains and gusty winds throughout today.

Please stay tuned and also always listen to your local authorities for official warnings.

We will have another update at 3pm today.
Issued (21 UTC) 5am PhT 082211

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