Friday, August 26, 2011

TY Nanmadol (Mina) Update #14 [LANDFALL]

Contrary to my forecast earlier, Typhoon Nanmadol will now MAKE LANDFALL NEAR STA. ANA, CAGAYAN! It was last located approximately 120km east southeast of Aparri, Cagyan; 100km northeast of Tuguegarao, or about 85km southeast of Sta. Ana. Nanmadol (Bagyong) has weakened slightly and is no longer a super typhoon. However, maximum sustained winds are still at 220kph with occasional gusts of up to 270kph. Right now, Nanmadol is moving very slowly west northwestward at 10kph.

This is my short-term forecast map (IR image from NRLMRY):
As you can see above, we still have that well-defined eye now nearing the Cagayan coast. It has become ragged over the past few hours due to the interaction with Luzon. Slight weakening will probably continue for the next 6 to 12 hours as it moves near or over land. Nanmadol/Mina will not stay over Luzon for very long. As you can see, my projected landfall 6am today just southeast of Sta. Ana, Cagayan (around 50km away). It will continue moving northwestward before turning northward. It should exit back into the water by 12pm today. It will then pass very closely across the Babuyan Group of Islands.

I will put up a special update by 6am today to give you the latest warnings from PAGASA which haven't come out yet.

My regular update will be around 3pm today.
Issued (21 UTC) 5am PhT 082711

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