Wednesday, August 22, 2012

Typhoon Bolaven Update #6

Typhoon Bolaven continues to intensify as it slowly moves across the Western Pacific. It was last located approximately 960km northwest of Guam or about 1,300km southeast of Okinawa. Maximum sustained winds are now at 150kph with gusts of up to 185kph. Bolaven is currently moving west northwestward at 15kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image continue to depict symmetrical Central Dense Overcast (CDO) with very strong convective activity in and around the center. The system also has a very good equatorward outflow--tapping lots of moisture from the southwest. We are also expecting the poleward outflow to improve tomorrow. Bolaven remains in an area of low to moderate wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures which should allow the system to continue intensifying in the next two days.

Typhoon Bolaven could enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility tomorrow afternoon and will be subsequently named 'Bagyong Julian' by PAGASA. Bolaven is not expected to directly impact the Philippines but it could certainly enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Hanging Habagat) over the weekend. Bolaven will remain under favorable conditions over the next few days and will have a chance to undergo a period of rapid intensification as early as tomorrow. It could even be upgraded to a Category 2 later tonight or tomorrow morning.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Forecasts from computer models and agencies are very consistent although they differ somewhat in the exact track. Computers are bringing Bolaven directly over Okinawa while agencies such as JTWC and JMA are expecting the system to remain offshore. Our forecast track is in the middle of the two but we are closely favoring the computer models and we are bringing Bolaven much closer to Okinawa than what the official agencies show. Based on latest data, Bolaven could move near Okinawa (and nearby islands) beginning Saturday night. Strongest winds will be felt by Sunday morning across Okinawa with sustained winds of 100 to 150kph possible. By this time, Bolaven will have become a Category 3 typhoon but the winds that are forecasted for Okinawa could still change as it all depends how close the center of the typhoon will get in that island.

Another aspect we are watching with Bolaven is how close it will get with Tembin. Right now, the two system are around 1,400km apart but could move much closer to each other by Saturday. For the potential implications of Bolaven to Tembin, please read our in-depth Text Update for Tembin HERE as well as on our lengthy Video Update HERE

If you are in Okinawa Islands, please continue to monitor the developments of Bolaven. Furthermore, as the system moves northward, it could then pose a threat for Eastern China and the Korean Peninsula early next week.

We'll have another update tomorrow.
Issued (10 UTC) 6pm PhT

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