Typhoon Tembin (Bagyong Igme) seems to have stabilized after weakening in the past 12 hours. It was last located approximately 380km southeast of Taipei, Taiwan or about 320km northeast of Basco, Batanes. Maximum sustained winds are at 165kph with gusts of up to 205kph Tembin is currently moving west northwestward at 10kph although latest satellite frames show a turn towards the west.
As of 5pm, PAGASA is still keeping Public Storm Warning Signal #1 for Batanes Group of Islands. The Central Weather Bureau in Taiwan, on the other hand, has issued Land and Sea Warnings for the counties of Hualien, Taitung, and Yilan. JMA has also issued High Waves Warning for Miyako Islands.
IR Image from NRLMRY
Latest satellite image shows the central dense overcast of Tembin (CDO) has become more symmetrical with the convection remaining strong. Wind shear has weakened again allowing the system to reorganize. The eyewall remains intact too, although partially open to the southeast. Tembin still has around 18 hours over water and favorable conditions so we expect the system to maintain its present intensity and could even regain some strength overnight before making landfall tomorrow.
Radar from CWB
Latest radar image from the Central Weather Bureau in Taiwan shows the center of Tembin starting to appear. Furthermore, the outer rain bands from the typhoon are slowly making their way to Taiwan. Rains could start tonight along the eastern coast, together with the Miyako Islands in Japan. Conditions should also start deteriorating later tonight with the worst weather expected tomorrow afternoon. For the latest radar images, forecasts, and warnings from Taiwan, please click HERE (CWB Website)
Typhoon Tembin is forecast to make landfall in Taitung or Hualien County as a strong Category 1 or even a Cat 2. Landfall point seems to be around Taitung or Hualien County although we think there is a higher chance of it making landfall in Taitung. Either way, damaging winds and heavy rains will be big threat across the country tomorrow and into Friday. Some areas, especially along the mountains, could get up to 500mm in the next 48 hours.
Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)
Tembin will then weaken to a Tropical Storm as it emerges off the western coast of Taiwan by Friday. If you notice, we've shifted our forecast track to the south based on the latest data from the computer models. The likelihood of a Fujiwhara (Fujiwara) Effect between Tembin and Bolaven is increasing. Based on that, we are thinking that Tembin might slow down and even stall as it exits southwest of Taiwan. Depending on how close Bolaven gets and the strength of two systems, Tembin could even make an abrupt u-turn and eventually move into the northeast. Due to the uncertainties in the medium-range forecasts, our cone of error is really wide and still encompasses Hong Kong and Northern Luzon. So for right now, residents along these areas should continue to monitor Tembin because even though it'll make landfall in Taiwan tomorrow and is forecast to weaken, it could still pose a threat to Southern China and even into Luzon as we head into the weekend.
If you are in Taiwan, please prepare NOW! Remember that we are not an official agency so always heed the warnings from your country's weather bureau (CWB) and local officials. Please share your storm reports, images and videos, or comments and questions to philippineweather@yahoo.com
We'll have another update tomorrow morning. Stay safe!
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Issued (10 UTC) 6pm PhT 082212
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