Wednesday, August 22, 2012

Typhoon Bolaven Update #7

Typhoon Bolaven continues to intensify in the Pacific and has now been upgraded to a Category 2 typhoon. It was last located approximately 1,130km southeast of Okinawa. Maximum sustained winds are now at 165kph with gusts of up to 205kph. Bolaven is currently moving west northwestward at 15kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Despite the lack of an eye on satellite, both JMA and JTWC increased Bolaven's winds overnight. Latest satellite image shows the expansive Central Dense Overcast (CDO) with very deep convection that has persisted for over two days now. Equatorward outflow remains excellent and we still expect the poleward outflow to start improving. Microwave images (not shown here) also suggest that the eyewall is starting to be complete with deep banding starting to wrap around the center.

Typhoon Bolaven is expected to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility later today and will be given a local name of 'Bagyong Julian' by PAGASA. Due to the favorable conditions in the region, we expect Bolaven to conitnue intensifying in the next 2 days. Once the eye clears out and the eyewall becomes more established, Bolaven could undergo rapid intensification.

Forecast tracks from official agencies have also shifted to the north and now follow closely with the tracks from computer models. This means that Bolaven (as we have been saying in the past) is now forecast to track much closer to Okinawa than before. The timing is around Saturday evening or early Sunday morning.

We'll have more updates later today along with our updated Forecast Track.
Issued (2330 UTC) 730am PhT 082312

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