Tuesday, July 5, 2016

Typhoon Nepartak (Bagyong Butchoy) Update #3

Issued (09 UTC) 5pm PhT 070516

Nepartak continues to intensify today and is now a Category 2 Typhoon. It has also entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility and has subsequently assigned the local name 'Bagyong Butchoy' by PAGASA. The center of Typhoon Nepartak was last located approximately 1,450km northeast of Virac, Catanduanes or about 1,300km southeast of Okinawa, Japan. Maximum sustained winds are now at 155kph with gusts of up to 195kph. Typhoon Nepartak is currently moving northwestward at 30kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows a faint eye-feature beginning to appear. The said eye feature is surrounded by deep convective activity along with good radial outflow. The eyewall has also greatly improved over the past 12 hours. Good environment conditions along the path of Nepartak will allow for further intensification over the next 24 to 48 hours.

JTWC Forecast Track

The latest forecast consensus among computer models and other weather agencies along the region shows a general track to the northwest that may take Nepartak near Taiwan and the Southern Japanese Islands by Wednesday afternoon. One such scenario is posted above, with the Joint Typhoon Warning Center's later Forecast Track.

Caution and initial preparations for residents living in the said region should commence at this point, especially if we see further intensification from Nepartak. Strong winds, heavy rainfall, and storm surges, should always be expected for a storm with this caliber.

As for the Philippines, Typhoon Nepartak (Bagyong Butchoy) is currently not forecast to directly impact the archipelago. However, expect the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) to be enhanced by the circulation of this typhoon. Widespread rainfall across the country, particularly across Western Luzon and Visayas regions, should be expected for the rest of this week.

We'll have another update for Nepartak tomorrow morning. As always, heed the warnings from your official weather agencies and always stay safe!

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