Wednesday, July 6, 2016

Super Typhoon Nepartak (Butchoy) Update #4

Issued (10 UTC) 6pm PhT 070616

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Super Typhoon Nepartak (Bagyong Butchoy) continues to intensify as it nears Taiwan. The eye of Nepartak was last located approximately 580km east of Basco, Batanes or about 840km southeast of Taipei, Taiwan. Maximum sustained winds are now at 280kph with gusts of up to 335kph. STY Nepartak is currently moving west northwestward at 30kph.

As of 5pm this afternoon, PAGASA has issued Public Storm Warning Signal #1 for Batanes Group of Islands. Winds of up to 60kph, moderate wave heights, and moderate to heavy rainfall are expected to occur within the next 36 hours.

IR Image from FNMOC

Latest satellite image shows the menacing Super Typhoon Nepartak with its pinhole eye surrounded by deep and very strong convective activity. The image above also shows the excellent poleward outflow together with the spiral bands associated with the typhoon. We have also highlighted the enhanced southwesterly flow bringing widespread rains across the Philippines. Nepartak will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) bringing rains across the archipelago over the next 2 days or so.

JTWC Forecast Track

Super Typhoon Nepartak will continue moving northwestward and could still possible intensify over the next 24 hours. It may very well make landfall in Taiwan tomorrow afternoon (Thursday) as a Category 5 Super Typhoon. Damaging winds in excess of 200kph, along with very heavy rainfall (possibly up to 600mm in some places), are possible especially along the eastern coast of Taiwan. The mountainous terrain of Taiwan will induce significant weakening for Nepartak but will remain a strong and damaging typhoon for at least another 12 hours after landfall. Even parts of Southeastern China will experience stormy conditions by Thursday evening and into Friday.

For our readers in this region, especially in Taiwan, please start making your preparations now (if you haven't done so) for this incoming typhoon. As always, stay safe and heed the warnings of your local official agency.

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