Monday, July 4, 2016

Tropical Storm Nepartak Update #2

Issued (0730 UTC) 070416 330pm PhT

Tropical Storm Nepartak has slightly intensified as it begins to pull away from the Mariana Islands. The storm center was last located approximately 420km west southwest of Guam. Maximum sustained winds are now at 85kph with gusts of up to 120kph. TS Nepartak is currently moving northwestward at 25kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Nepartak remains a run-of-the-mill Tropical Storm based on the latest satellite imagery. Strong convective activity emanating from the circulation center continues to consolidate and grow. Some dry air intrusion have been limiting intensification so far. However, we expect Nepartak to continue intensifying over the next few days as good upper-level environment and high ocean heat content will provide conditions for further strengthening.

Forecasts for Tropical Storm Nepartak generally remains the same. We are still expecting a continued movement to the northwest over the course of the storm's lifetime. Model consensus has remained showing a possible track towards East Asia, particularly near Taiwan and the Southern Japanese Islands as we move into the latter part of the week.

And while the storm will enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility by tomorrow (Tuesday), and will be named Bagyong Butchoy by PAGASA, we don't expect any direct impacts from Nepartak. However, the storm will eventually enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) which will bring widespread rains across the country, particularly parts of Luzon and Visayas.

No comments:

Post a Comment