Sunday, July 3, 2016

Tropical Storm Nepartak Update #1

Issued (16 UTC) 12am PhT 0701416

After a quiet start to the 2016, the Western Pacific finally has its first named cyclone of the season. Tropical Storm Nepartak is consolidating near the Mariana Islands. The storm center was last located approximately 360km south of Guam. Maximum sustained winds are at 65kph with gusts of up to 85kph. TS Nepartak is currently moving north northeastward at 15kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows convective activity beginning to consolidate near the circulation center. Banding has also improved over the past few hours. Nepartak is moving in an area of low wind shear and high sea surface temperatures which will only help the system gain strength over the coming days.

Tropical Storm Nepartak is forecast to move northeastward over the Philippine Sea and will be named Bagyong Butchoy as it enters the PAR by Tuesday morning.. As of this time, the computer model consensus does not show Nepartak directly affecting the Philippines. However, the southwest monsoon (Habagat) may be enhanced bringing higher chances of rainfall across the country.

Tropical Storm Nepartak is also forecast to continue intensifying and may reach typhoon-intensity by the middle of this week. Long-range forecasts also show Nepartak possibly affecting Eastern Asia by the end of this week.

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