Wednesday, August 5, 2015

Typhoon Soudelor (Hanna) Update #8

Issued (03 UTC) 11am PhT 080615

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Typhoon Soudelor (Bagyong Hanna) continues to weaken this morning and is now down to Category 2 intensity. The eye of Soudelor was last located approximately 810km east of Basco, Batanes (Philippines) or about 990km southeast of Taipei, Taiwan. Maximum sustained winds are at 175kph with gusts of up to 215kph. Typhoon Soudelor is currently moving west northwestward at 20kph.

PAGASA has issued Public Storm Warning Signal #1 for Batanes Group of Islands in anticipation for winds of up to 60kph in the next 36 hours.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows the bands of convection does not look as organized and symmetrical as yesterday. Typhoon Soudelor is currently moving in an area of cooler sea surface temperatures which is leading to weakening. A bout of dry air has also been ingested into the circulation which is not good for tropical cyclone intensification. Radial outflow, however, remains excellent and we expect Soudelor to recover and re-intensify as it reaches the warmer waters just east of Taiwan.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Our latest forecast track has been moved slightly south from our previous track.We are still expecting Soudelor to make landfall in Taiwan by early morning on Saturday as a possible Category 3 Typhoon. Heavy rains and strong winds are expected across much of the island. Some areas may even receive up to 600mm of rain which may lead to flooding and landslides. Even parts of Batanes will be impacted with bands of light to moderate rain and tropical storm-force winds. Southwest Monsoon will also be enhanced by Soudelor which may bring scattered rains across parts of the Philippines.

Soudelor will cross into Southeastern China and is forecast to possibly make landfall in the Fujian or Guangdong Provinces as a Category 1 Typhoon. As with Taiwan, we expect widespread heavy rains to impact the region during this time. Soudelor will continue bringing stormy conditions even as it weakens and moves further inland. Total dissipation is not forecast until late Monday.

We'll have another update later tonight.

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