Tuesday, August 4, 2015

Typhoon Soudelor Update #7

Issued (03 UTC) 11am PhT 080515

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Typhoon Soudelor (Bagyong Hanna) has begun to weaken as it moves across the Philippine Sea. The eye of Soudelor was last located approximately 970km southeast of Okinawa, Japan. Maximum sustained winds are now down to 215kph with gusts of up to 260kph. Typhoon Soudelor is currently moving west northwestward at 20kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows the eye has become cloud-filled and the cloud tops have warmed indicating weakening convection. Soudelor weakened from a Category 5 Super Typhoon down to a Category 4 Typhoon this morning. This is due to a combination of upper-level subsidence and cooler sea surface temperatures along the track. We may see some slight re-intensification tomorrow but nothing like what we've seen from Soudelor yesterday.

Typhoon Soudelor (Bagyong Hanna) will continue moving west northwestward over the next few days. The forecast track has shifted slightly south and we now expect Soudelor to move south of the Ryukyu Islands of Japan. However, the chances are still high for a possible landfall in Taiwan this weekend.

As for the intensity, we still expect Soudelor to be a pretty potent typhoon by the time it hits Taiwan. It will also bring copious amounts of rainfall to the island. As for the Philippines, expect the Southwest Monsoon to enhance light rain showers especially across Northern Luzon. Residents living in Taiwan should continue to closely monitor the development of Soudelor and, as always, heed the warnings of the local officials.

We'll have another update later tonight.

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