Wednesday, May 6, 2015

Typhoon Noul (Dodong) Update #4

Issued (0330 UTC) 1130am PhT 050715

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Typhoon Noul (Bagyong Dodong) continues to intensify as it moves across the Philippine Sea. The center of Noul was last located approximately 400km north northwest of Palau or about 860km east of Guiuan, Eastern Samar. Maximum sustained winds are now at 165kph with gusts of up to 205kph. Typhoon Noul is currently moving west northwestward at 15kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows strong convective activity continue in and around the circulation center. An eye is also beginning to form and could become more pronounced later today. Good outflow pattern and high ocean heat content will promote steady intensification for another 48 hours which could help Noul attain Category 4 intensity this weekend.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Computer models continue to shift their track westward and our latest forecast map reflects that change. Unfortunately, the chances of landfall in Luzon are increasing as the turn to the north is not forecast to happen until after Noul makes landfall on Sunday.

Right now, the center of Noul may make landfall in the Central Luzon region around Sunday morning (PH Time). However, parts of Eastern Visayas (especially Samar Island) and Bicol Region are also poised to see direct impacts from Noul beginning Saturday morning. Strong winds, heavy rains, and high surf should be expected along the eastern coast of Luzon and Visayas this weekend.

If you live in the areas near our forecast track, now is the time to start your preparations. Please note that this Forecast Track is not official and may change in the coming days. Please consult PAGASA and your local officials for the latest forecasts and warnings for your area. Stay safe!

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