Thursday, May 7, 2015

Tropical Depression 07W Update #2

Issued (00 UTC) 8am PhT 050815

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Tropical Depression 07W has maintained its intensity as it consolidates near the Caroline Islands. The center of 07W was last located approximately 500km southeast of the island of Pohnpei. Maximum sustained winds remain at 55kph with gusts of up to 75kph. TD 07W is moving northward at 10kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows convective activity over the center of circulation. TD 07W is still slowly consolidate as it moves across an area of moderate wind shear. However, we expect the system to intensify at a faster pace in the next 24 to 48 hours as conditions become more favorable for development.

Current track forecast for the system shows a general west northwestward track which will take it near Pohnpei by tomorrow. It could also intensify into a Typhoon this weekend and possible move south of Guam early next week. Exact details as to the impacts for Guam and the rest of the Mariana Islands are still up in the air, however.

We'll have a separate update for Typhoon Noul (Bagyong Dodong) later this morning. The system continues to move closer to the Philippines and several provinces have already been placed under Signal #1 by PAGASA.

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