Issued (03 UTC) 11am PhT 032815
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Tropical Depression 04W has intensified this morning and has been upgraded into Tropical Storm Maysak. The system was last located approximately 300km east of Chuuk or about 1,270km southeast of Guam. Maximum sustained winds are now at 75kph with gusts of up to 95kph. TS Maysak is currently moving westward at 15kph.
The National Weather Service in Guam has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Fananu and Chuuk for the possibility of winds of up to 80kph (50mph). For the latest warnings from NWS, please click HERE
IR Image from NRLMRY
Latest satellite image shows Maysak becoming more organized this morning with a developing central dense overcast and good formative banding. Convection has also increased and become more consolidated, especially near the low-level circulation center. Maysak is in an area of favorable conditions and is expected to steadily intensify in the next few days.
Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)
Our preliminary forecast shows Tropical Storm Maysak moving west northwestward, moving near the state of Chuuk tonight and into tomorrow morning. It will be passing well south of Guam by Monday and could even become a Typhoon around that time frame. By Tuesday, Maysak is forecast to be a Category 2 Typhoon as it nears the state of Yap.
We expect Maysak to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility by Wednesday as a strong Category 3 Typhoon, by which time PAGASA will assign the local name of "Bagyong Chedeng". Our preliminary forecast is based on the consensus from the numerous computer model guidance that we use. This is not set in stone just yet and it is still too early to determine the impacts this storm will bring to the Philippines.
We'll continue to keep you abreast on the developments of Tropical Storm Maysak.