Tropical Depression Jangmi (Seniang) Update #5 (FINAL)

Issued (04 UTC) 12pm PhT 123114
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Jangmi (Bagyong Seniang) has weakened to a Tropical Depression as it struggles to maintain intensity across the Sulu Sea. The system was last located approximately 220km northwest of Zamboanga City or about 275km southeast of Puerto Princesa. Maximum sustained winds are at 55kph with gusts of up to 75kph. TD Jangmi is moving southward at 10kph.

As of 11am this morning, PAGASA has raised Public Storm Warning Signal # 1 for Palawan. All other signal warnings have now been lowered.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows convection is severely lacking as the circulation center is left exposed due to the strong wind shear in the region. Furthermore, Jangmi continues to display weakening trends this morning which could lead to a total dissipation in the next 24 hours.

Tropical Depression Jangmi will continue moving slowly southward across the Sulu Sea. It could totally dissipate in the next 24 to 48 hours as weather conditions are hostile for cyclone development. Residual rains will continue across parts of Visayas but should taper off in the next few days.

This is our final update for Tropical Depression Jangmi. We'll continue to watch this area for possible redevelopment. Have a wonderful and safe New Year!

Tropical Storm Jangmi (Seniang) Update #4

Issued (0430 UTC) 1230pm PhT 123014
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Tropical Storm Jangmi (Bagyong Seniang) is now moving into the Sulu Sea although rains continue across much of Visayas. The system was last located approximately 120km southwest of Iloilo City. Maximum sustained winds are at 75kph with gusts of up to 95kph. TS Jangmi is moving westward at 20kph.

As of 11am this morning, PAGASA has raised Public Storm Warning Signal #2 for Negros Occidental, Negros Oriental, Guimaras, Southern Cebu, Southern Antique, and Southern Iloilo. Signal #1 for Palawan, Calamian Group of Islands, Cuyo Island, Aklan, Capiz, Rest of Antiquie, Rest of Iloilo, Rest of Cebu, Bohol, and Siquijor.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows Jangmi is not looking as organized as it did yesterday. The central convection is less consolidated and the low-level center is partially sheared from the main convection. Nevertheless, widespread heavy rains continue across parts of Visayas especially across the island of Panay. Even parts of Samar and the Bicol Region are seeing scattered rains today. These adverse weather conditions will continue through the evening hours but should taper off by tomorrow as it already did in Mindanao today.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Tropical Storm Jangmi will continue moving across the Sulu Sea today and will move into Palawan by tonight. The center is forecast to pass near the city of Puerto Princesa and will bring widespread rains across the region. Jangmi should move into the South China Sea (West Philippine Sea) by tomorrow and exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility by Thursday.

We'll have another update later tonight.

Tropical Storm 23W (Seniang) Update #3

Issued (22 UTC) 6am PhT 122914
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TD 23W (Bagyong Seniang) has intensified into a Tropical Storm this morning and could make landfall in the next few hours. The storm center was last located approximately 65km southeast of Tandag City or about 160km southeast of Surigao City. Maximum sustained winds are up to 65kph with gusts of up to 85kph. Tropical Storm 23W is moving west northwestward at 10kph.

As of 5am this morning, PAGASA has raised Public Storm Warning Signal #2 for Bohol, Siquijor, Surigao del Sur, Surigao del Norte, Siargao Island, Agusan del Norte, Agusan del Sur, Misamis Oriental, and Camiguin.

Signal #1 for Leyte, Southern Leyte, Camotes Island, Cebu, Negros Oriental, Negros Occidental, Dinagat Province, Compostela Valley, Northern part of Davao Oriental, Davao del Norte, Bukidnon, Lanao del Norte, Misamis Occidental, and Zamboanga del Norte.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows strong convective activity in and around the low-level circulation center. Banding has improved and the overall organization of the storm has become more consolidated overnight. Due to the proximity of land, we don't expect any significant intensification although Seniang will likely keep its tropical storm intensity as it makes landfall later this morning.

Radar Image from PAGASA

Latest radar image from Hinatuan courtesy of PAGASA shows bands of light to moderate rains, with pockets of heavy rains, continuing to overspread Mindanao. Many areas have already received more than 100mm of rain and some areas have even reported receiving more than 200mm of rain in the past 36 hours. Unfortunately, rains will continue for the next 48 hours. We expect an additional 100 to 200mm of rain which will increase the likelihood of flash floods and landslides in storm-prone areas.

For the latest radar images and forecasts from PAGASA, please click HERE (PROJECT NOAH)

We urge everyone to please continue closely monitoring the developments of this storm. If you live in low-lying areas and near bodies of water, please coordinate with your local officials for possible evacuation.

We'll have another update later today. Stay safe!

Tropical Depression 23W (Seniang) Update #2

Issued (0730 UTC) 330pm PhT 122814
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Tropical Depression 23W (Bagyong Seniang) has slightly intensified as it continues to consolidate east of Mindanao. The system was last located approximately 250km east northeast of Davao City. Maximum sustained winds are now at 55kph with gusts of up to 65kph. TD 23W is moving west northwestward at 15kph.

As of 11am this morning, PAGASA has raised Public Storm Warning Signal #1 for Southern Leyte, Bohol, Siquijor, Surigao del Norte, Surigao del Sur, Dinagat Province, Agusan del Norte, Agusan del Sur, Davao del Norte, Davao Oriental, Compostella Valley, Camiguin Island, Misamis Oriental, and Bukidnon.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows convective activity continuing to build and become more organized. The low-level circulation continues to tighten as the system tries to consolidate just east of Mindanao. Bands of light to moderate rains have already been impacting parts of Visayas and Mindanao since last night. We expect up to 200mm of rain to fall in the next 24 hours increasing the likelihood of flash floods and landslides.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

 
Tropical Depression Seniang will continue moving west northwestward and will likely make landfall in Surigao del Sur by early tomorrow morning. It will cross into Visayas and will bring widespread rains across the region over the next 2 to 3 days. Intensification will be limited due to land interaction. However, torrential rains will still bring dangerous weather conditions across many areas in Southern Philippines.

We'll have another update later tonight.

Tropical Depression 99W (Seniang) Update #1

Issued (23 UTC) 7am PhT 122814
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A new Tropical Cyclone has developed just east of Mindanao this morning. The low pressure area that we've been watching for days has been upgraded to Tropical Depression 99W (Bagyong Seniang). The system was last located approximately 380km southeast of Surigao City. Maximum sustained winds are at 45kph with gusts of up to 65kph. TD 99W is moving west northwestward at 10kph.

As of 5am this morning, PAGASA has raised Public Storm Warning Signal #1 for Surigao del Norte, Surigao del Sur, Agusan del Norte, Agusan del Sur, Davao del Norte, Davao Oriental, Compostella Valley, Camiguin Island, Misamis Oriental, and Bukidnon.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows bursts of convection surrounding the circulation center of TD 99W. The system is still in the early stages of development and will continue to slowly consolidate in the next 24 hours. Bands of light to moderate rains are beginning to move into parts of Visayas and Eastern Mindanao. We expect conditions in the region to become rainier later this afternoon.

Tropical Depression 99W (Seniang) will continue to slowly intensify today and could become a Tropical Storm in the next 48 hours. It is forecast to move west northwestward and could move towards Northern Mindanao by tomorrow. Widespread rains should be expected across Mindanao and even into Visayas in the coming days. Residents in the region are advised to closely monitor the storm's development and as always, heed the warnings of the local officials.

We'll have another update later today. Stay safe!

Tropical Depression Hagupit Update #17 (FINAL)

Issued (04 UTC) 12pm PhT 121214
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Hagupit has now weakened to a Tropical Depression as it moves just east of Vietnam. The system was last located approximately 320km east southeast of Ho Chi Minh. Maximum sustained winds are down to 45kph with gusts of up to 65kph. TD Hagupit is moving south southwestward at 30kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows convection is waning and the low-level circulation center is becoming more fully exposed. Strong wind shear and dry air are acting upon the system as forecast and will continue causing weakening and eventual dissipation.

Tropical Depression Hagupit will continue moving near the Vietnamese Coast. Residual light to moderate rains will continue to affect the region but should die down in the next 24 to 48 hours. Hagupit should fully dissipate by tomorrow.

This is our final update for Tropical Depression Hagupit. A low pressure area is spotted well east of the Philippines this morning but is not expected to become a Tropical Cyclone in the next few days.

Tropical Storm Hagupit Update #16

Issued (0430 UTC) 1230pm PhT 121114
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Tropical Storm Hagupit has weakened this morning as it continues to move towards Vietnam. The system was last located approximately 770km northeast of Ho Chi Minh.Maximum sustained winds are down to 65kph with gusts of up to 85kph. TS Hagupit is moving westward at 15kph.

IR Image from NOAA

Latest satellite image shows convection has weakened and is confined near the circulation center. Wind shear has increased and dry air from the north is continuing to get entrained into the circulation. Hagupit should continue weakening as it nears the Vietnamese Coast.

Tropical Storm Hagupit will continue moving towards Central/Southern Vietnam. The system could weaken to a Tropical Depression by tonight and make landfall by tomorrow morning in Southern Vietnam. Heavy rains and gusty winds will affect the southern half of the country, including Ho Chi Minh. Hagupit should rapidly weaken and eventually dissipate as it moves over land.

We'll have another update later tonight.

Tropical Storm Hagupit (Ruby) Update #15

Issued (03 UTC) 11am PhT 121014
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Tropical Storm Hagupit (Bagyong Ruby) has slightly re-intensified this morning as it continues to move away from the Philippines. The storm center was last located approximately 480km west southwest of Manila. Maximum sustained winds are at 85kph with gusts of up to 110kph. TS Hagupit is moving westward at 20kph.

PAGASA has now dropped all Public Storm Warning Signals in the country.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Tropical Storm Hagupit has re-intensified this morning as it moves into slightly favorable environment over the West Philippine Sea (South China Sea). Thankfully, the system is now moving away from the Philippines. Hagupit left more than a dozen people dead (official death toll is still climbing) and nearly P2 billion ($45 million) in damages to properties and agriculture. While life is returning to normal, thousands of people are still reeling from the effects of the once Super Typhoon, especially in Eastern Samar.

Tropical Storm Hagupit will continue moving westward and should exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility later this afternoon. It will likely maintain its Tropical Storm-strength as it moves into Vietnam by Thursday afternoon. Strong winds and heavy rains will impact the region including the city of Ho Chi Minh.

We'll have another update later tonight.

Tropical Storm Hagupit (Ruby) Update #14

Issued (01 UTC) 9am PhT 120914
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Tropical Storm Hagupit (Bagyong Ruby) continues to weaken as it begins to leave the province of Batangas. The system was last located approximately 40km west of Batangas City or about 90km south southwest of Manila. Maximum sustained winds are down to 65kph with gusts of up to 85kph. TS Hagupit is moving westward at 10kph.

PAGASA has downgraded Ruby (Hagupit) into a Tropical Depression this morning and has lowered all Public Storm Warning Signal #2. However, Signal #1 is still in effect for Metro Manila, Bataan, Cavite, Laguna, Batangas, Oriental Mindoro, Occidental Mindoro, and Lubang Island.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows convection near the center continuing to weaken. Hagupit moved very slowly across the province of Batangas overnight and took nearly 12 hours for it. Wind reports in the region continue to become less impressive and satellite data reveals continued weakening. Hagupit might be downgraded into a Tropical Depression by both JMA and JTWC tomorrow.

Radar Image from PAGASA

Latest radar image courtesy of DOST-PAGASA shows bands of light to moderate rains continue to affect much of Southern Luzon, Mindoro, and Marinduque. These bands are still capable of producing up to 15mm per hour. Additional rainfall accumulations of up to 100mm are still possible in some areas and we can't rule out further flooding and landslides in some places.

For the latest radar images, please click HERE (Project NOAH)

Tropical Storm Hagupit will continue moving westward today. Stormy conditions will persist across Southern Luzon and Mindoro island through the afternoon hours. Weather conditions will start to improve tonight. Hagupit will also be continuing to weaken and could be downgraded into a Tropical Depression by tomorrow as it moves across the South China Sea (West Philippine Sea).

We'll have another update later today.

Tropical Storm Hagupit (Ruby) Update #13 (VIDEO)

Issued (0930 UTC) 530pm PhT 120814
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Hagupit (Bagyong Ruby) has weakened to a Tropical Storm this afternoon and is now moving near Southern Luzon. The storm center was last located approximately 50km northeast of Calapan, Oriental Mindoro, 60km east southeast of Batangas City, or about 120km southeast of Manila. Maximum sustained winds are down to 95kph with gusts of up to 120kph. TS Hagupit is moving west northwestward at 15kph.

IR Image from NOAA

As of 5pm this afternoon, PAGASA has lowered Public Storm Warning Signal #3. However, Signal #2 still remains for: Metro Manila, Batangas, Cavite, Bataan, Laguna, Southern Quezon, Marinduque and Northern Oriental Mindoro including Lubang Island.

Signal #1: Zambales, Pampanga, Tarlac, Bulacan, Rizal, Rest of Quezon, Rest of Mindoro Provinces and Romblon. 

Watch our latest Video Update below for more in-depth discussion about Tropical Storm Hagupit.

 
We'll have another update tomorrow morning. 

Typhoon Hagupit (Ruby) Update #12

Issued (22 UTC) 6am PhT 120814
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Watch below for our in-depth Video Update. Scroll down for our complete Text Update.

 
Typhoon Hagupit (Bagyong Ruby) continues to weaken this morning as it moves near the island of Marinduque. The storm center was last located approximately 70km south southwest of Naga, Camarines Sur or about 280km southeast of Metro Manila. Maximum sustained winds are down to 120kph with gusts of up to 150kph. Typhoon Hagupit is currently moving west northwestward at 10kph.

As of 5am this morning, here are the latest Public Storm Warning Signals from PAGASA: 

Signal #3: Burias Island, Marinduque, Romblon, Oriental Mindoro, Occidental Mindoro, Batangas, Laguna, Cavite, Southern Quezon, and Lubang Island. 

Signal #2: Masbate, Ticao Island, Calamian Grp. of Islands Bulacan, Bataan, Northern Quezon, Rizal, Camarines Sur, Camarines Norte, Metro Manila, Semirara Island, Aklan, and Capiz. 

Signal #1: Albay, Sorsogon, Polillo Island, Zambales, Nueva Ecija, Tarlac, Pampanga, Catanduanes, Northern Palawan including Cuyo, Northern Samar, Iloilo, Antique, Biliran, and Bantayan Island. 

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows convective activity continuing to weaken as more and more dry air continue to get entrained into the circulation. However, stormy conditions will still persist in the region as strong winds and heavy rains are still present near the center.

Radar Image from DOST PAGASA

Latest radar image out of Tagaytay shows bands of light to moderate rains moving across Quezon Province into the CALABARZON Region. These rains will soon affect the National Capital Region including Metro Manila later this morning. Up to 300mm of rain is possible over the next 12 hours which could bring widespread flooding and landslides.

For the latest radar images, please click HERE (PROJECT NOAH)

Typhoon Hagupit (Bagyong Ruby) will continue weakening as it moves near the island of Marinduque later this morning. It will likely be downgraded into a Tropical Storm as it moves near the island of Mindoro. Winds of up to 100kph along with heavy rains are still possible for Manila and nearby provinces. Stormy conditions will continue throughout the day today before dying down by tomorrow morning. We'll have another update later today. Stay safe!

Typhoon Hagupit (Ruby) Update #11

Issued (16 UTC) 12am PhT 120814
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Typhoon Hagupit (Bagyong Ruby) continues to weaken as it moves near Burias Island. The storm center was last located approximately 50km northwest of Masbate City or about 60km southwest of Legazpi City, Albay. Maximum sustained winds are down to 140kph with gusts of up to 175kph. Typhoon Hagupit is moving west northwestward at 10kph.

As of 11pm this evening, here are the latest Public Storm Warning Signals from PAGASA:

Signal #3: Masbate, Ticao Island, Burias Island, Marinduque, Romblon, Oriental Mindoro, Occidental Mindoro, Batangas, Laguna, Cavite, Southern Quezon and Lubang Island.

Signal #2: Calamian Grp. of Islands, Bulacan, Bataan, Rest of Quezon, Rizal, Sorsogon, Albay, Camarines Sur, Camarines Norte, Metro Manila, Semirara Island, Biliran, Aklan, Capiz and Bantayan Island.

Signal #1: Polillo Island, Zambales, Nueva Ecija, Tarlac, Pampanga, Catanduanes, Northern Palawan including Cuyo, Northern Samar, Eastern Samar, Samar, Leyte, Iloilo, Antique, Guimaras, Negros Occidental, and Northern Cebu including Cebu City and Camotes Island.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows Hagupit looking less and less of a typhoon this evening. Convection has significantly weakened and banding has lessened as well. Dry air to the north and to the west are being entrained into the circulation which is causing the weakening. With that said, Hagupit should not be underestimated as strong winds and heavy rains are still affecting many areas in Luzon and Visayas.

Radar Image from PAGASA

 
Latest radar image from PAGASA shows bands of light to moderate rains moving across Eastern Visayas and into parts of Bicol Region. Subic Radar is also starting to pick up rain bands which will soon affect Southern Luzon including Metro Manila. We expect up to 200mm of rainfall over the next 12 hours. Flooding and landslides are still highly likely in some areas. Please heed the warnings of your local officials!

For the latest radar images, please click HERE (Project NOAH)

Typhoon Hagupit will continue moving generally west northwestward tracking near Southern Luzon including the provinces of Quezon and Laguna. It will pass well south of Manila in the morning but may still bring winds of p to 100kph in the metro. Moderate rains will also persist through the afternoon hours tomorrow and will spread into parts of Mindoro Island. Typhoon Hagupit is forecast to eventually move into the West Philippine Sea (South China Sea) by Monday evening or into early Tuesday morning.

We'll have another update in the morning. 

Typhoon Hagupit (Ruby) Update #10

Issued (23 UTC) 7am PhT 100714
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Typhoon Hagupit (Ruby) continues to slowly cross the island of Samar this morning. The storm center was last located approximately 20km southeast of Calbayog City, Western Samar or about 80km north northwest of Tacloban City, Leyte. Maximum sustained winds are down to 185kph with gusts of up to 240kph. Typhoon Hagupit is moving westward at 10kph.

As of 5am this morning, here are the latest Public Storm Warning Signals from PAGASA:

Signal #3: Romblon, Catanduanes, Camarines Sur, Albay, Sorsogon and Masbate including Burias, Ticao Island, Northern Samar, Eastern Samar, Samar, Leyte and Biliran.

Signal #2: Camarines Norte, Southern Quezon, Marinduque, Oriental Mindoro, Occidental Mindoro Laguna, Batangas, Northern Antique, Aklan, Semirara Grp. of Islands, Capiz, Northern Iloilo, Northern Cebu including Cebu City, Southern Leyte, Bantayan and Camotes Islands.

Signal #1: Pampanga, Bulacan, Rest of Quezon, Rizal,Bataan, Cavite, Lubang Island, Calamian Group of Islands, Cuyo, Metro Manila, Rest of Antique,Rest of Iloilo, Guimaras, Negros Occidental, Negros Oriental, Rest of Cebu and Bohol, Surigao del Norte including Siargao Island and Dinagat Province. 

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows Hagupit (Bagyong Ruby) continues to trek slowly across the island of Samar. The system made landfall last night and the center is currently exiting near the city of Calbayog. Strong winds of up to 140kph continue to pound the areas near the storm center. Widespread heavy rains also continue to affect much of Samar, Bicol Region, Leyte, and nearby islands.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Typhoon Hagupit will continue moving generally westward this morning. We are still expecting a slight turn to the northwest later today which should bring the center near Masbate this afternoon. Stormy conditions across Samar and Leyte will continue for another 6-12 hours before winding down. Due to continued land interaction, we also expect Hagupit to continue weakening over the next 2 days. 

Bands of light to moderate rains will spread towards Panay, Romblon, Marinduque, and parts of Southern Luzon (including Metro Manila) by tomorrow. By Tuesday, Hagupit is forecast to slowly move away from the Philippines, weakening to a Tropical Storm during that time frame.

We'll have another update later today. 

Typhoon Hagupit (Ruby) Update #9 (LANDFALL)

Issued (16 UTC) 12am PhT 120714
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Typhoon Hagupit (Bagyong Ruby) has made landfall near the town of Dolores in Eastern Samar a little less than 3 hours ago. The system is now crossing the island of Samar and was last located approximately 40km north of Borongan, 80km east southeast of Calbayog, or about 100km southeast of Catarman. Maximum sustained winds remain at 205kph with gusts of up to 250kph. Typhoon Hagupit is moving westward at 15kph.

As of 11pm this evening here are the latest Public Storm Warning Signals from PAGASA:

Signal #3: Romblon, Catanduanes, Camarines Sur, Albay, Sorsogon, Masbate including Burias and Ticao Island, Northern Samar, Eastern Samar, Samar, Leyte and Biliran.

Signal #2: Camarines Norte, Southern Quezon, Marinduque, Oriental Mindoro, Occidental Mindoro, Northern Antique, Aklan, Semirara Grp. of Islands, Capiz, Northern Iloilo, Northern Cebu including Cebu City, Bantayan and Camotes Island, and Southern Leyte.

Signal #1: Pampanga, Bulacan, Rest of Quezon, Rizal, Cavite, Laguna, Batangas, Lubang Island, Calamian Group of Islands, Cuyo, Metro Manila, Rest of Antique,Rest of Iloilo, Guimaras, Negros Occidental, Negros Oriental, Rest of Cebu, Bohol, Surigao del Norte including Siargao Island and Dinagat Province. 

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows the clouds associated with Hagupit moving across Eastern Visayas. The center made landfall near the towns of Oras and Dolores in the province of Eastern Samar at about 9:15pm Philippine Time. Very strong winds and heavy rains are now battering the region. Even the town of Guiuan reported a sustained wind of 122kph this evening despite not being near the center of Hagupit. We expect dangerous conditions to continue in Samar and parts of Bicol over the next 6 hours.

Radar Image from PAGASA

 
Latest radar images from Virac and Cebu shows the center of Hagupit (Ruby) and its bands of light to moderate rains spreading across Samar, Leyte, Bicol, and even parts of Cebu. Rainfall rates of 20 to as much as 30mm per hours are possible. We expect anywhere from 200 to 400mm of rain to fall in some areas over the next 2 days due to Hagupit. Landslides and flashfloods will be highly likely so please make sure you heed the warnings of your local officials!

For the latest radar images and forecasts, please click HERE (Project NOAH)

Typhoon Hagupit will continue moving across Samar tonight and should start turning west northwestward possibly moving near Masbate and the Bicol Region. By Sunday morning, Hagupit is forecast to move near Quezon province, Romblon, and Marinduque. Stormy conditions will spread west and north by this time possible affecting Panay, Negros, Mindoro, and even parts of Southern Luzon (including Metro Manila).

We'll have another update tomorrow morning. 

Typhoon Hagupit (Ruby) Update #8

Issued (10 UTC) 6pm PhT 120614
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Typhoon Hagupit (Bagyong Ruby) continues to weaken as it moves closer to the island of Samar. The center of Hagupit was last located approximately 180km northeast of Tacloban City, Leyte or about 200km east southeast of Catarman, Northern Samar. Maximum sustained winds are down to 205kph with gusts of up to 250kph. Typhoon Hagupit is moving westward at 15kph.

As of 5pm this afternoon, here are the latest Public Storm Warning Signals from PAGASA:

Signal #3: Catanduanes, Albay including Burias Island, Sorsogon, Masbate, Ticao Island, Northern Samar, Eastern Samar, Samar, and Biliran.

Signal #2: Camarines Sur, Romblon, Aklan, Capiz, Northern Cebu including Cebu City, Bantayan Island, Leyte and Southern Leyte.

Signal #1: Southern Quezon, Camarines Norte, Batangas, Marinduque, Oriental Mindoro, Occidental Mindoro, Antique, Iloilo, Guimaras, Northern Negros, Rest of Cebu, Bohol, Surigao del Norte including Siargao Island and Dinagat Province. 

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows the central dense overcast of Typhoon Hagupit is moving closer to the island of Samar. The system's eye has become cloud filled as it encounters increasing wind shear and dry air from the north. Nevertheless, Typhoon Hagupit remains a powerful and highly dangerous cyclone. Strong winds, heavy rains, and high waves are now impacting much of Samar, parts of Leyte, and the Bicol Region area.

Conditions in the region will continue to worsen as we move into the evening hours. The center of Hagupit is forecast to make landfall somewhere in Northern Samar (possibly near the town of Gamay) before midnight. It will then move very near Catarman and then into the province of Sorsogon. It will continue moving generally west northwestward, weakening along the way but still bringing dangerously stormy conditions. By tomorrow morning, Hagupit will be moving near Ticao, Masbate, Burias Islands, Romblon, Marinduque, and parts of Quezon.

Heavy rains will also spread and could affect the rest of Visayas to the south, and parts of Southern Luzon to the north. Please pay close attention to the news for the latest warnings from your local officials!

We'll have another update later tonight. Stay safe! 

Typhoon Hagupit (Ruby) Update #7 (VIDEO)

Issued (13 UTC) 9pm PhT 120514
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Typhoon Hagupit (Bagyong Ruby) continues to move closer to the eastern coasts of the Philippine Islands. The eye of Hagupit was last located approximately 340km east of Borongan, Eastern Samar. Maximum sustained winds are at 230kph with gusts of up to 280kph. Hagupit is moving westward at 15kph.

As of 5pm this afternoon, PAGASA has raised Public Storm Warning Signal #2 for Albay, Sorsogon, Ticao Island, Masbate, Northern Samar, Eastern Samar, Samar, Biliran, Leyte, Southern Leyte, Northern Cebu including Cebu City, Bantayan Island and Camotes Island.

Signal #1 for Catanduanes, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Burias Island, Romblon, Capiz, Iloilo, Antique, Guimaras, Aklan, Negros Oriental, Negros Occidental, Rest of Cebu, Siquijor, Bohol, Surigao del Sur, Agusan del Norte, Surigao del Norte, Dinagat Island, Siargao Island, Agusan del Sur and Camiguin Island.

Please watch our Video Update below for more information and in-depth discussion on the possible impacts from Typhoon Hagupit (Ruby).

 
We'll have another update tomorrow morning. Stay safe! 

Typhoon Hagupit (Ruby) Update #6

Issued (04 UTC) 12pm PhT 120514
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Hagupit (Bagyong Ruby) has weakened to a Category 4 Typhoon this morning as it undergoes an eyewall replacement cyclone over the Philippine Sea. The eye of Hagupit was last located approximately 420km east of Borongan, Eastern Samar. Maximum sustained winds are down to 230kph with gusts of up to 280kph. Typhoon Hagupit is moving west northwestward at 15kph.

As of 11am this morning, PAGASA has raised Public Storm Warning Signal #2 for Sorsogon, Ticao Island, Masbate, Northern Samar, Eastern Samar, Samar, Biliran, Leyte, Southern Leyte, Northern Cebu (including Cebu City), Bantayan Island, and Camotes Island. 

Signal #1 is in effect for Catanduanes, Albay, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Burias Island, Romblon, Capiz, Iloilo, Antique, Aklan, Negros Oriental, Negros Occidental, Rest of Cebu, Siquijor, Bohol, Surigao del Sur, Agusan del Norte, Dinagat Island, Siargao island, Misamis Oriental, Agusan del Sur, and Camiguin Island.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows the eye reforming as Typhoon Hagupit is undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle. This ERC has weakened the system from a Category 5 Super Typhoon down to Category 4 this morning. Upon the successful completion of the ERC, there is a small chance of a slight reintensification in the next 24 hours.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

 
We have shifted our forecast track slightly northward as we see more agreement in the computer model outputs. Typhoon Hagupit is now tracking under a rebuilding Subtropical Ridge and should move generally westward over the next 24 hours. It is forecast to possibly make landfall in the island of Samar late Saturday evening or perhaps early Sunday morning as a strong Category 4 Typhoon.

Strong winds, heavy rains, and significant storm surge are highly likely along the coasts of Samar, Leyte, and even into the Bicol Region, particularly in the provinces of Sorsogon, Albay, and Catanduanes. Hagupit will weaken after landfall and will cross into the islands of Masbate, Romblon, and Mindoro. It will bring widespread rains across much of Visayas and into Southern Luzon, including Metro Manila, by Sunday and Monday. We expect Hagupit to exit into the South China Sea (West Philippine Sea) as a Category 1 Typhoon by Tuesday.

This is a very dangerous typhoon and the chances of landfall in the Philippines are high. We urge everyone along the path to prepare now and possibly think about evacuating. Even residents away from the path including those in Southern Luzon and Northern Mindanao should keep a close eye on the progress of Hagupit as the forecast track could still change. As always, please heed the warnings and instructions of your local officials!

We'll have another update later this afternoon. Stay safe!

Super Typhoon Hagupit (Ruby) Update #5 (VIDEO)

Issued (09 UTC) 5pm PhT 120414
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Super Typhoon Hagupit (Bagyong Ruby) continues to move across the Philippine Sea this afternoon.

Check out our latest Video Update for in-depth discussion on the potential scenarios regarding Hagupit's track.

We'll have another update in the evening.

Super Typhoon Hagupit (Ruby) Update #4

Issued (0430 UTC) 1230pm PhT 120414
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Hagupit (Bagyong Ruby) has rapidly intensified into a Category 5 Super Typhoon monster this morning. The eye of Hagupit was last located approximately 380km north northwest of Palau or about 770km east northeast of Surigao City. Maximum sustained winds are at 285kph with gusts of up to 350kph. Super Typhoon Hagupit is currently moving west northwestward at 30kph.

As of 11am this morning, PAGASA has raised Public Storm Warning Signal #1 for Northern Samar, Eastern Samar, Samar, Biliran, Leyte, Southern Leyte, Surigao del Norte, Siargao Island, Surigao del Sur, and Dinagat. Residents are advised to pay close attention and always heed the warnings from your local officials!

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows the menacing eye of Hagupit becoming more and more symmetrical. The system underwent an eyewall replacement cycle last night and upon completion, has rocketed in terms of intensity. It will likely continue intensifying even more as it moves across the warm waters of the Philippine Sea. Since it still has at least 48 hours before moving towards the Philippines, there is a possibility of another eyewall replacement cycle which could weaken the system a little bit.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Our forecast track remains consistent with the consensus among the computer models and forecast agencies in the region. Unfortunately, this track continues to paint a grim picture for the Philippines. Super Typhoon Hagupit could slam parts of Eastern Visayas at Category 5 intensity with winds of up to 300kph this weekend. Along with damaging winds, the threat of heavy rains and significant storm surge exists as well (as we've seen with Super Typhoon Haiyan or Yolanda last year).

This is a very significant and dangerous cyclone and we urge everyone in the country to pay close attention to the forecasts and warnings from authorities! If you live along the coast and other storm-prone areas (especially in the Visayas), please start preparing now and consider the possibility of evacuating at a moment's notice. We have about 48 hours before the dangerous weather conditions will be slamming the country.

We'll have another update later this afternoon.

Typhoon Hagupit (Pre-Ruby) Update #3

Issued (08 UTC) 4pm PhT 120314
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Hagupit (Future Bagyong Ruby) has rapidly intensified into a Major Category 3 Typhoon. It is now lashing the island of Yap with the center just 60km south of Yap or about 440km northeast of Palau. Maximum sustained winds are now at 185kph with gusts of up to 230kph. Typhoon Hagupit is moving west northwestward at 30kph.

The National Weather Service has issued Typhoon Warning for Yap and a Tropical Storm Warning for Palau. Please heed the warnings and always follow the instructions from your local officials!

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows the central dense overcast moving very near the island of Yap. Winds of up to 160kph are possible over the next 1 to 2 hours. Heavy rains and high waves will also lash the said islands. Even Palau will see tropical storm winds of up to 85kph along with bands of light to moderate rains tonight.

Typhoon Hagupit continues to move in an area of highly favorable environment with weak wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures. It will likely intensify for another 24 to 48 hours with a possibility of attaining Super Typhoon status by tomorrow.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

 
Unfortunately, computer models are starting to converge on a track and it's not good for the Philippines. While there is still a chance that Hagupit recurves to the north, the consensus is now for the typhoon to head west and possibly hit parts of Visayas beginning Saturday. At this early stage, we urge everyone along the eastern seaboard from Luzon all the way to Mindanao to pay close attention to the forecast over the next 2 to 3 days. Always follow the precautionary measures set by your local government and always consult with the official forecast from PAGASA.

We'll have another update later tonight.

Tropical Storm Hagupit Update #2

Issued (0430 UTC) 1230pm PhT 120214
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Tropical Storm Hagupit continues to slowly intensify as it moves across the Western Pacific. The system was last located approximately 940km east southeast of Yap. Maximum sustained winds are now at 85kph with gusts of up to 110kph. TS Hagupit is moving westward at 30kph.

The National Weather Service has issued a Typhoon Watch for Ngulu (Yap) and a Typhoon Warning for Woleai (Yap). Residents under these advisories should start preparing for the approach of this cyclone. As always, heed the warnings from your local officials!

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows Hagupit continuing to consolidate with a strong and deep convective activity right over the circulation center. Tight banding near the center continues to improve and is starting to show an eyewall-like feature. Furthermore, radial outflow remains robust. Favorable conditions in the region will promote continued intensification over the next few days.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Our preliminary forecast track is positioned closely with the ECMWF (European) computer model output. It is one of the two main scenarios regarding Hagupit's path. The other scenario is for an early recurvature that would take the system north and away from the Philippines; which is what the GFS model is showing. The eventual track depends on the strength of the subtropical ridge over the Pacific and the approaching mid-latitude trough across Northeastern Asia. These factors will need to be continually monitored to get a sense on Hagupit's final track.

For now, Yap State should prepare as Hagupit is forecast to move near the islands tomorrow, possibly as a Category 1 Typhoon. It will enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility by Thursday and will be named "Bagyong Ruby" by PAGASA. It will continue moving across the Philippine Sea and could undergo a period of rapid intensification. After that, our forecast confidence drops as there are still massive differences with the different computer models that we use.

We'll have another update later tonight. Stay safe!