Wednesday, November 6, 2013

Super Typhoon Haiyan (Yolanda) Update #7

Issued (06 UTC) 2pm PhT 110713

Super Typhoon Haiyan (Bagyong Yolanda) continues to move closer towards Eastern Philippines. The eye of Haiyan was last located approximately 420km northwest of Palau or abou 630km east southeast of Surigao City. Maximum sustained winds are at 275kph with gusts of up to 330kph. STY Haiyan is moving west northwestward at 35kph.

As of 11am this morning, PAGASA has raised Public Storm Warning Signal #3 for Eastern Samar, Samar, Leyte, Southern Leyte, Siargao Island, and Dinagat. 

Signal #2 is up for Sorsogon, Masbate, Ticao Island, Northern Samar, Biliran Province, Bantayan, Camotes Islands, Northern Cebu, Cebu City, Bohol, Surigao Del Norte, Camiguin, Surigao Del Sure, and Agusan del Norte. 

Signal #1 is in effect for Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Catanduanes, Albay, Mindoro Provinces, Burias Island, Romblon, Marinduque, Calamian Islands, Southern Quezon, Aklan, Capiz, Iloilo, Antique, Guimaras, Negros Occidental, Negros Oriental, Rest of Cebu, Siquijor, Misamis Oriental, and Agusan del Sur.

Areas under Signal #3 should expect winds of up to 185kph in the next 18 hours. Trees, roofs, and other items outside will suffer damage and will be blown by the wind. Even some concrete homes could sustain some damages.

Areas under Signal #2 should expect winds of up to 100kph in the next 24 hours and could see some damages as well. Signal #1 will have winds of up to 60kph in the next 36 hours; not much damage although trees and roofs may still be blown around.

IR Image from FNMOC

Latest satellite image shows a perfectly-defined eye surrounded by very deep and strong convective activity. Radial outflow is also pretty good and banding is improving as well. Haiyan has completed an eyewall replacement cycle this morning and is looking really good on current satellite images. There really is no stopping this storm and we expect it to maintain its present intensity right before landfall.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Super Typhoon Haiyan (Bagyong Yolanda) will continue moving west northwestward and should maintain its current intensity. Outer rain bands are already beginning to impact parts of Eastern Visayas. Rains and winds will only get worse as we move into the evening hours. Haiyan/Yolanda is forecast to make landfall either in the Southern Tip of Samar (near Guiuan) or in the island of Leyte. The timing would be around 6 or 8am tomorrow morning (Friday). Destructive winds of up to 300kph extend about 40km away from the center while winds of 120kph extend up to 100kph away. That means that Tacloban City, Catbalogan, Dinagat, and nearby islands will experience very catastrophic winds that will damage many properties by tomorrow.

Yolanda will keep moving west northwestward and will gradually weaken as it moves across the islands in the Visayas. It will move near the northern half of Cebu Island and then towards Panay, passing near the cities of Kalibo and Roxas. Even Boracay will be severely impacted by this typhoon. By Friday evening, the eye of Yolanda will then move towards Mindoro Island and then exit to the West Philippine Sea/South China Sea by early Saturday morning.

48-hour Rainfall Forecast (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Aside from the strong winds, we are also looking at the potential for very heavy rains across the region. Thankfully, Haiyan/Yolanda will be moving rather quickly so rainfall accumulations will be around 300mm or so in the worst areas. Still, flooding and landslides are likely in areas where they usually occur. Our map above details where we think the heaviest rains will fall. You can see that even parts of Southern Luzon (including Manila) and Northern Mindanao could see some rains. But the heaviest should be focused across Central Visayas particularly across Leyte, Samar, Bohol, Cebu, Negros, and Panay.

Please stay tuned and always heed the warnings of your local officials! We'll have another update later tonight. Stay safe!

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