Friday, October 11, 2013

Typhoon Nari (Santi) Update #8

Issued (01 UTC) 9am PhT 101213

Typhoon Nari (Bagyong Santi) is finally moving away from Luzon after making landfall in the province of Aurora last night. The system was last located approximately 170km southwest of Dagupan City or about 240km northwest of Manila. Maximum sustained winds are down to 165kph with gusts of up to 205kph.Typhoon Nari is moving westward at 30kph.

As of 5am this morning, PAGASA has issued Public Storm Warning Signal #3 for Pangasinan and Zambales. Signal #2 is in effect for La Union, Benguet, Tarlac, Pampanga, and Bataan. Meanwhile, Signal #1 is in effect for Ilocos Sur, Mt. Province, Ifugao, Nueva Viscaya, Quirino, Aurora, Nueva Ecija, Bulacan, Metro Manila, Rizal, Cavite, Laguna, Batangas, and Lubang Is.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows the bulk of convection associated with Typhoon Nari is now moving into South China Sea or the West Philippine Sea. Since it is now moving across open waters, convective activity and strong banding has resumed. Eyewall is also starting to reform after suffering from landfall last night.

Radar Image from ClimateX PH

Latest radar from Subic shows bands of light to moderate rains are still affecting the western coasts of Pangasinan, Zambales, Bataan, and parts of Southern Luzon. There may still be up to 50mm of rain falling in the next 6 to 12 hours. Santi brought widespread heavy rains as it moved across Luzon last night. Many stations saw up to 200mm of rain especially in the provinces of Aurora, Quezon, Nueva Ecija and nearby provinces. Thankfully, though, rains should start to taper off for much of Luzon later this afternoon. For the latest radar images and rainfall forecast, click HERE (ClimateX PH)

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Typhoon Nari (Santi) will continue moving westward over the next three days. Favorable conditions in the South China Sea will help Nari regain much of its strength and could even reach Category 3 intensity once again. Computer models are in generally good agreement with the track of Nari. We are forecasting the system to make landfall in Central Vietnam by  Monday morning.

We'll have another update later today.

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