Friday, October 11, 2013

Tropical Storm Wipha Update #1

Issued (0130 UTC) 930am PhT 101213

The tropical cyclone that formed two days ago near the Marianas Islands continue to intensify this morning. Tropical Storm Wipha was last located approximately 660km northwest of Guam. Maximum sustained winds have increased to 100kph with gusts of up to 130kph. TS Wipha is currently moving northwestward at 15kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows a continuously improving cyclone with good convection wrapping around the circulation center along with a very vigorous band just to the south. Outflow continues to improve as well. Light wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures will also allow the system to continue intensifying for the next few days; Wipha could even become a Typhoon later tonight.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Our latest forecast track shows a continued northwestward track for the next two days.The favorable conditions in the region will help Wipha reach a peak of around Category 3 intensify by Monday. Around that time as well, we expect Wipha to recurve to the northeast around the subtropical ridge. It will then accelerate to the northeast weakening along the way but might still pose a threat for Japan, including Tokyo area.

We'll have another update later today.

No comments:

Post a Comment