Friday, October 11, 2013

Typhoon Nari (Santi) Update #7

Issued (1230 UTC) 830pm PhT 101113

Typhoon Nari (Bagyong Santi) is inching closer towards the east coast of Luzon. The storm was last located approximately 60km southeast of Baler, Aurora or about 150km northeast of Manila. Maximum sustained winds remain at 185kph with gusts of up to 230kph. Typhoon Nari is moving westward at 15kph.

As of 5pm this morning, PAGASA has issued Public Storm Warning Signal #3 for Aurora, Isabela, Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, Ifugao, Benguet, La Union, Ilocos Sur, Pangasinan, Mt. Province, Tarlac, Nueva Ecija, Northern Quezon , Polilio Island, and Northern Zambales. These provinces are forecast to receive the strongest winds from Nari as the eye will pass near the said provinces. These winds are strong enough to knock down trees and even houses.

Signal #2 is in effect for Metro Manila, Ilocos Norte, Cagayan, Apayao, Kalinga, Abra, Rest of Zambales, Pampanga , Bataan, Bulacan, Rizal, and the Rest of Quezon. These provinces will also receive strong winds but are less than typhoon-force (less than 120kph). Still, some wind gusts may be able to uproot small trees and even roofs from weakly-built houses.

Signal #1 is in effect for Calayan and Babuyan Group of Is., Cavite, Batangas, Laguna, Lubang Islands, Marinduque, Camarines Provinces, Northern Mindoro, and Catanduanes. These provinces will get winds of up to 60kph enough to cause some minor damage to roofs and trees.

Please remember that Signal Warnings are meant for winds. Heavy rains should be expected to fall across much of the provinces listed here. We are expecting 100 to 300mm of rain to fall tonight and into tomorrow. Widespread flooding and landslides are possible in many areas including Metro Manila.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows the massive expanse of clouds now starting to move into the east coast of Luzon. Convective activity is very strong tonight, characterized by cloud tops that have temperatures of as low as -85C! Microwave analysis also suggest a well-defined eyewall that is beginning to move just north of Polilio Island.

Radar Image from ClimateX PH

Latest radar from ClimateX PH shows the widespread light to moderate rains currently impacting Metro Manila. Some pockets of heavy rains are also moving across the region (orange and red shadings indicate heavy rains). These rain clouds can bring as much as 50mm of rain in one hour which can lead to urban flooding in many thoroughfares. The rest of Luzon should expect amounts of up to 300mm (some higher areas may receive as much as 500mm of rain!). For more radar images and rainfall forecasts, please click HERE (Project NOAH).

Typhoon Nari (Bagyong Santi) is forecast to make landfall near Dingalan, Aurora, just south of Baler. Time for landfall will be between 9pm and midnight tonight (12am). Strong winds of up to 200kph are possible along the coast from Northern Quezon all the way to the town of Casiguran. Strongest winds will be felt near the towns of Dingalan and Baler.

After Aurora, Nari will move westward into the provinces of Nueva Ecija, Tarlac, Pangasinan, and Zambales. Overall, much of Luzon should expect stormy conditions to last over the next 12 to 18 hours. Please stay safe and always heed the warnings of your local officials and PAGASA.

We'll have another update tomorrow morning.

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