Thursday, October 10, 2013

Typhoon Nari (Santi) Update #6

Issued (05 UTC) 1pm PhT 101113

Typhoon Nari (Santi) continues to intensify as it nears the coast of Luzon. The storm center was last located approximately 200km east of Baler, Aurora or about 300km east northeast of Manila. Maximum sustained winds are now up to 185kph with gusts of up to 230kph making Nari a Category 3 on the Saffir Simpson Scale. Typhoon Nari is currently moving westward at 15kph.

As of 11am this morning, PAGASA has raised Public Storm Warning Signal #3 for seven provinces which include the following: Aurora, Isabela, Quirino, Ifugao, Nueva Vizcaya, Benguet, and Nueva Ecija. These provinces should expect typhoon winds of more than 120kph. Aurora, which will be the landfall point, will experience the strongest winds out of Nari with up to 200kph possible.

Signal #2 is in effect for La Union, Pangasinan, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Cagayan, Apayao, Kalinga, Abra, Mt. Province, Tarlac, Zambales, Bulacan, Pampanga, Northern Quezon, and Polilio Island. These provinces should expect winds of up to 100kph in the next 12 to 24 hours.

Signal #1 is in effect for Metro Manila, Calayan and Babuyan Group of Is., Bataan, Rizal, Cavite, Batangas, Laguna, Lubang Islands, Rest of Quezon, Marinduque, Camarines Provinces, Albay, and Catanduanes. Areas under Signal #1 will experience gusty winds of up to 60kph.

All provinces included here should also expect to receive widespread rains aside from the strong winds. Many places here could see up to 100mm of rain with some isolated areas receiving as much as 300mm over the next 24 hours.

This is a dangerous storm. Please heed all the warnings from your local officials and always refer to PAGASA for the latest OFFICIAL forecasts and warnings.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows a strongly uniform central dense overcast (CDO) with vigorous convective activity and good equatorward outflow. It looks like the eye is having a hard time appearing on the satellite. However, recent microwave images suggest that the eyewall is as healthy as ever and we won't be surprised if the system continues to intensify right before landfall.

Radar Image from ClimateX PH

Latest radar out of Luzon shows outer rain bands from Nari are now beginning to impact much of Central and Southern Luzon. Heavy rains are now moving across the provinces of Quezon, Rizal, and parts of the Bicol Region. Metro Manila is also starting to see some light to moderate rains. Precipitation will continue to spread westward into much of Luzon especially in Northern and Central Luzon tonight. As we've mentioned above, total accumulation of 100 to 300mm of rain should be expected in many places which will increase the risk of flash floods and landslides. For the latest radar images and rainfall forecasts, click HERE (ClimateX PH Website).

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

We are still expecting Typhoon Nari (Santi) to make landfall near Baler, Aurora later tonight. While we can't pinpoint the exact timing of the landfall, we expect the strongest winds to occur in Aurora between 11pm and 3am on Saturday. Aside form Aurora, the provinces of Quezon and Isabela should also expect to see some very strong winds of 160 to 180kph.

After Aurora, Nari will likely cross the provinces of Nueva Ecija, Nueva Vizcaya, and Pangasinan before it exits into the South China Sea/West Philippine Sea. With that said, Central and Southern Luzon should expect to see stormy conditions last from tonight through tomorrow afternoon (Saturday). After the Philippines, Nari is forecast to threaten Vietnam by early next week as a strong typhoon.

We'll have another update later today. Stay safe!

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