Thursday, October 10, 2013

Typhoon Nari (Santi) Update #4

Issued (15 UTC) 11pm PhT 101013

Tropical Storm Nari (Bagyong Santi) has rapidly intensified into a Typhoon today. It was last located approximately 330km northeast of Virac or about 580km east northeast of Manila. Maximum sustained winds are now at 130kph with gusts of up to 165kph. Typhoon Nari has also accelerated westward and is now moving at a forward speed of 20kph.

As of 5pm this afternoon, PAGASA has raised Public Storm Warning Signal #2 for Isabela, Aurora, Northern Quezon, and Polilio Island. Signal #1 is in effect for Southern Cagayan, Kalinga,Abra, Mt. Province, Ilocos Sur, Ifugao, Beguet, La Union, Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, Nueva Ecija, Pangasinan, Tarlac, Zambales, Bataan, Pampanga, Bulacan, Metro Manila, Rizal, Cavite, Laguna, Rest of Quezon, Camarines Provinces, and Catanduanes. These provinces should expect stormy conditions with strong winds and light to moderate rains in the next 24 hours.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows strong convective activity forming around the central dense overcast. The eye hasn't formed yet although microwave analysis indicate that the eyewall continues to build around the circulation center. Meanwhile, parts of the Bicol Region are starting to feel impacts of Nari with outer rain bands bringing light to moderate rains. Some parts of the region could receive up to 100mm of rain through tomorrow morning.

Typhoon Nari has accelerated westward and that means landfall time will be much earlier than thought. Earlier this morning, we were forecasting a landfall of early Saturday morning. Right now, we think Nari will make landfall tomorrow evening (Friday) somewhere in Aurora Province. The center looks like it will make landfall near the town of Casiguran. Strong typhoon-force winds of up to 160kph are possible along the coast. Furthermore, widespread rains will impact Central and Northern Luzon. Southwest monsoon will also bring rains across Southern Luzon, including Manila, and parts of Visayas.

We'll have another update tomorrow morning.

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