Wednesday, October 9, 2013

Tropical Storm Nari (Santi) Update #3

Issued (0130 UTC) 930am PhT 101013

Tropical Storm Nari (Bagyong Santi) continues to intensify and is nearing Typhoon status as it moves across the Philippine Sea. The storm center was last located approximately 400km northeast of Virac, Catanduanes or about 700km east northeast of Manila. Maximum sustained winds are now up to 110kph with gusts of up to 140kph.TS Nari is moving west northwestward at 10kph.

PAGASA has now issued Public Storm Warning Signal #1 for the province of Catanduanes. The said province will experience stormy conditions with winds of up to 60kph along with light to moderate rains in the next 24 to 36 hours. PAGASA will likely increase the amount of provinces under Signal Warnings in their subsequent updates.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows a rapidly improving cyclone with a developing central dense overcast characterized by strong convective activity and good radial outflow. Microwave analysis also show massive improvements in banding compared to yesterday with an eyewall that is becoming more defined. Nari is taking advantage of the favorable conditions in the region and we might actually see the system become a typhoon as early as tonight!

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Tropical Storm Nari (Bagyong Santi) should continue to move generally westward under the influence of the strong subtropical ridge to the north. As said above, we do expect Nari to continue intensifying, likely becoming a typhoon tonight. The favorable conditions that exist may induce a period of rapid intensification in the next 24 hours. In fact our latest Forecast Track is forecasting Nari to peak at Category 3 intensity before it makes landfall in Luzon.

In terms of landfall, we still expect Nari to make landfall in the province of Aurora. Computer models are in good agreement with the track of the storm. Nari may make landfall near the town of Baler by early Saturday morning. Strong winds and heavy rains will impact the region this weekend and will spread through much of Northern and Central Luzon including the National Capital Region.

Even the Bicol Region should expect light rains beginning today as the feeder and outer bands impact the region. Furthermore, as Nari intensifies, it will significantly enhance the southwest monsoon which may bring rains across parts of Southern Luzon and even Visayas area.

We'll have another update later today.

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