Wednesday, October 9, 2013

Tropical Storm Nari (Santi) Update #2

Issued (14 UTC) 10pm PhT 100913

Tropical Depression 24W has intensified into a Tropical Storm. TS Nari, also known as Bagyong Santi in the Philippines, continues to move across the Philippine Sea. The storm center was last located approximately 560km east northeast of Virac, Catanduanes or about 900km east of Manila. Maximum sustained winds are now at 65kph with gusts of up to 85kph. TS Nari is moving west northwestward at 10kph.

IR Image from FNMOC

Latest satellite image shows convection continuing to build around the low-level center. Banding has also improved as suggested by microwave analysis. Wind shear remains light and the warm sea surface temperatures across the Philippine Sea will aid the system in strengthening for the next 24 to 36 hours.

Tropical Storm (Santi) will continue moving generally westward over the next one to two days. The strong subtropical ridge to the north will not allow the system to recurve so the chances of landfall in Luzon are high. Based on its current movement, we expect the landfall to occur sometime around Friday evening or perhaps early Saturday morning. Landfall point would be around the Aurora/Isabela Provinces.

Strong winds and heavy rains are expected in these provinces. However, scattered to widespread rain showers will affect parts of Northern and Central Luzon as well. Furthermore, Tropical Storm will likely enhance the southwest monsoon bringing rains across Southern Luzon and parts of Visayas in the coming days.

We’ll have another update tomorrow morning.

No comments:

Post a Comment