Issued (14 UTC) 10pm PhT 100913
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Tropical Depression 24W has intensified into a Tropical Storm.
TS Nari, also known as Bagyong Santi in the Philippines, continues to move
across the Philippine Sea. The storm center was last located approximately 560km
east northeast of Virac, Catanduanes or about 900km east of Manila. Maximum
sustained winds are now at 65kph with gusts of up to 85kph. TS Nari is moving west
northwestward at 10kph.
IR Image from FNMOC
Latest satellite image shows convection continuing to build around
the low-level center. Banding has also improved as suggested by microwave
analysis. Wind shear remains light and the warm sea surface temperatures across
the Philippine Sea will aid the system in strengthening for the next 24 to 36
hours.
Tropical Storm (Santi) will continue moving generally
westward over the next one to two days. The strong subtropical ridge to the
north will not allow the system to recurve so the chances of landfall in Luzon are
high. Based on its current movement, we expect the landfall to occur sometime
around Friday evening or perhaps early Saturday morning. Landfall point would
be around the Aurora/Isabela Provinces.
Strong winds and heavy rains are expected in these
provinces. However, scattered to widespread rain showers will affect parts of
Northern and Central Luzon as well. Furthermore, Tropical Storm will likely
enhance the southwest monsoon bringing rains across Southern Luzon and parts of
Visayas in the coming days.
We’ll have another update tomorrow morning.
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