Tuesday, October 8, 2013

Tropical Depression Santi (24W) Update #1

Issued (15 UTC) 11am PhT 100913

A new Tropical Cyclone has formed across the Philippine Sea this morning. Tropical Depression 24W or Bagyong Santi was last located approximately 660km east northeast of Virac, Catanduanes or about 1,000km east of Manila. Maximum sustained winds are at 55kph with gusts of up to 75kph. TD Santi is moving west northwestward at 15kph.

IR Image from FNMOC

Latest satellite image shows a cyclone in its early stages of development with a partially-exposed low-level center and continuously improving convective activity. The warm sea surface temperatures of the Philippine Sea, combined with the weak wind shear in the region, will provide favorable conditions for continued intensification over the next few days.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Computer models once showed TD 24W/Santi moving towards Taiwan. However, with the strength and extent of the subtropical ridge, the model consensus has now shifted on a more westward track that will take the cyclone towards Luzon. We have moderate confidence due to the available data; the forecast here won't be as complicated as that of Typhoon Danas

Tropical Depression 24W/Santi will continue moving generally westward across the Philippine Sea. It is forecast to become a Tropical Storm later tonight and may even become a Typhoon in two days' time. We are expecting TD 24W to make landfall somewhere in Luzon by Saturday afternoon. Potential areas for landfall would be the provinces of Aurora and Isabela. Other parts of Luzon should also expect stormy conditions this weekend, including Metro Manila. So far, PAGASA hasn't issued any Public Storm Warning Signals across the country; however, we expect the agency to start putting up signal warnings by tonight or by tomorrow morning.

We'll have another update later today.

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