Thursday, October 31, 2013

Typhoon Krosa (Vinta) Update #6 (LANDFALL)

Issued (1130 UTC) 730pm PhT 103113

Typhoon Krosa (Bagyong Vinta) has intensified even further as it makes landfall in the province of Cagayan. The eye was last located approximately 40km east southeast of Aparri, Cagayan or about 420km north northeast of Manila. Maximum sustained winds are now at 150kph with gusts of up to 185kph. Typhoon Krosa is moving westward at 20kph.

As of 5pm this afternoon, PAGASA has raised Public Storm Warning Signal #3 for Cagayan, Calayan, Babuyan Group of Islands, Apayao, and Ilocos Norte. Signal #2 for Batanes Group of Islands, Abra, Kalinga, Ilocos Sur, Mt. Province, and Isabela. Signal #1 for La Union, Benguet, Ifugao, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, Aurora, and Pangasinan.

IR Image from FNMOC

Latest satellite image shows an eye has now formed as Typhoon Krosa begins to make landfall. The eye is still ragged but is surrounded by strong convective activity. Radial outflow is also strong and has been helping the system intensify in the past 24 hours.

Radar Image from Aparri (3 hours old)

A 3-hour old image from Aparri Radar shows the eye of Krosa/Vinta with bands of strong rains moving in from the east. Unfortunately, it's getting harder to access PAGASA's websites so can't put up the latest image from the radar. However, we can infer that heavy rains are definitely affecting much of Northern Luzon now. The province of Cagayan, Kalinga, and Ilocos Norte will see the heaviest rains with accumulations of up to 300mm possible through tomorrow. Even the rest of Northern Luzon will see rainfall amounts of 100 to 200mm which will increase the likelihood of flash floods and landslides.

Typhoon Krosa (Vinta) will continue moving westward across the province of Cagayan tonight. It might weaken a little bit as it moves across land. Krosa will pass near Aparri tonight bringing winds of up to 150kph in the area. By early tomorrow morning, Krosa will be moving near the city of Laoag in Ilocos Norte and will bring dangerous and stormy conditions there as well. It will exit Luzon shortly thereafter and could re-intensify as it begins to move across the South China Sea/West Philippine Sea this weekend.

We'll have another update tomorrow morning.

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