Wednesday, October 30, 2013

Typhoon Krosa (Vinta) Update #5

Issued (04 UTC) 12pm PhT 103113

Krosa (Bagyong Vinta) has intensified and is now a Category 1 Typhoon! The system is also nearing landfall in Northern Luzon and was last located approximately 240km east southeast of Aparri, Cagayan or about 480km northeast of Manila. Maximum sustained winds are now at 120kph with gusts of up to 150kph. Typhoon Krosa is moving westward at 25kph.

As of 11am this morning, PAGASA has issued Public Storm Warning Signal #3 for Cagayan, Calayan, Babuyan Group of Islands, Apayao, and Ilocos Norte. Signal #2 for Batanes Group of Islands, Abra, Kalinga, Ilocos Sur, Mt. Province, and Isabela. La Union, Benguet, Ifugao, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, Aurora, Pangasinan, Nueva Ecija, Tarlac, and Zambales.

Areas mentioned above should look out for strong winds and heavy rains, especially in areas under Signal #3. Landslides and flash floods are highly likely in prone communities so we urge everybody to remain vigilant and always heed the warnings of your local officials!

IR Image from FNMOC

Latest satellite image shows a symmetrical central dense overcast wit strong convective activity forming around the center. An eye is not readily apparent and further microwave analysis suggest that the eyewall formation is not fully established. However, given the satellite appearance and estimates, many agencies, except the Japan Meteorological Agency, have upgraded Krosa into a Typhoon.

Radar from Aparri (PAGASA)

Latest radar out of Aparri, Cagayan shows bands of light to moderate rains moving in from the east. These rain bands will continue to overspread much of Northern Luzon later this afternoon. We expect as much as 300mm of rainfall to accumulate, especially along the provinces of Cagayan, Kalinga, and Ilocos Norte. The good news is that Krosa/Vinta is moving quite quickly so weather conditions should start to improve by tomorrow evening.

For the latest warnings and forecasts from PAGASA, please click HERE (PAGASA Website)

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Typhoon Krosa (Vinta) is forecast to make landfall in Northern Cagayan Province in about 3 hours. It will continue moving westward and will pass near Aparri later this afternoon. It will then move into the province of Ilocos Norte, weakening to a Tropical Storm as it passes near the city of Laoag. Krosa will, then, exit into the South China Sea/West Philippine Sea by early tomorrow morning (Friday).

As it exits into the open waters, Krosa will likely regain intensity and become a Typhoon again as it passes well south of Hong Kong. We expect the system to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility by Saturday morning. After the Philippines, the next likely threat based on computer models will be Southern China, particularly the island of Hainan.

We'll have another update later today.

No comments:

Post a Comment