Tuesday, October 29, 2013

Tropical Storm Krosa (Vinta) Update #3

Issued (0130 UTC) 930am PhT 103013

Tropical Depression 29W has intensified into Tropical Storm Krosa. TS Krosa (Bagyong Vinta) continues to move across the Philippine Sea and is threatening to make landfall in Luzon in less than two days. The storm center was last located approximately 640km NE of Virac, Catanduanes or about 920km east northeast of Manila. Maximum sustained winds are now at 75kph with gusts of up to 95kph. TS Krosa is moving westward at 20kph.

As of 5am this morning, PAGASA has raised Public Storm Warning Signal #1 for the provinces of Cagayan, Isabela, and Aurora. Stormy conditions are possible in the areas mentioned in less than two days so residents here are urged to closely monitor and make preparations now, if possible.

IR Image from FNMOC

Latest satellite image shows substantial improvement with regard to the structure of Krosa. A central dense overcast is starting to form characterized by strong convective activity. Convective banding is also more pronounced with microwave analysis suggesting tighter wrapping around the core. Outflow is also improving this morning and has been helping with the recent burst of intensification.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Tropical Storm Krosa (Vinta) will continue moving generally westward over the next 24 to 36 hours. Favorable conditions along its path will promote continuous intensification and there is actually a small chance that Krosa will become a typhoon before it makes landfall in Luzon.

Latest model consensus continue to show a track towards Northern Luzon. Based on the latest data, we are forecasting a landfall somewhere between Cagayan and Isabela Provinces. Strong winds and heavy rains are possible beginning tomorrow afternoon and will last through Friday. Krosa's impacts will spread across Northern Luzon and should end by Friday evening. Krosa will then exit into the South China Sea/West Philippine Sea and could re-intensify over the weekend.

We'll have another update later today.

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