Tuesday, October 29, 2013

Tropical Depression 29W (Vinta) Update #2

Issued (1330 UTC) 930pm PhT 102913

Tropical Depression 26W or “Bagyong Vinta” remains weak and somewhat disorganized as it moves across the Philippine Sea. The center was last located approximately 1,140km east northeast of Manila. Maximum sustained winds remain at 55kph with gusts of up to 75kph. TD 26W is moving westward at 25kph.

As of 5pm this afternoon, PAGASA has raised Public Storm Warning Signal #1 for Isabela and Aurora provinces due to the impending approach of Vinta.

 IR Image from FNMOC

Latest satellite image shows that convection remains largely fragmented and shallow. TD 29W is not showing any significant improvements in the past 12 hours despite the favorable conditions in the region. Nevertheless, we still expect TD 29W to become a Tropical Storm by tomorrow morning.

Latest computer model consensus is still taking 29W on a westward course towards Luzon. TD 29W will continue intensifying, becoming a Tropical Storm by tomorrow, but is not forecast to become a Typhoon before it hits the Philippines. Based on latest information, we expect landfall to occur sometime on Thursday evening or early Friday morning.

Right now, anywhere from Aurora to the province of Cagayan should closely monitor the developments of TD 29W/Vinta. While we’re not expecting a typhoon to hit the region, strong winds, heavy rains, and high waves are still possible in the areas mentioned.

We’ll have another update tomorrow morning.

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