Monday, October 28, 2013

Tropical Depression 96W (Vinta) Update #1

Issued (0130 UTC) 930am PhT 102913

A new Tropical Cyclone has formed in the Philippine Sea this morning. Tropical Depression 96W with a local name of "Bagyong Vinta" was last located approximately 1,430km east northeast of Manila. Maximum sustained winds are at 55kph with gusts of up to 75kph. TD Vinta is moving west northwestward at 25kph.

IR Image from FNMOC

Latest satellite image shows numerous but largely disorganized convective clouds forming around the low-level center. There is low wind shear and good outflow; sea surface temperatures are supportive of further intensification as well. TD Vinta is still far from the Philippines to affect it but could impact the country later this week.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Tropical Depression 96W will continue tracking generally westward over the next two days, under the influence of a subtropical ridge. Favorable conditions will promote gradual intensification and could help reach tropical storm status later tonight. Based on the latest track forecasts, there is a good chance of TD 96W making landfall in Northern Luzon later this week.

While the exact landfall point of 96W is still uncertain, much of Central and Northern Luzon should closely monitor the developments of this system. Timing for landfall will likely be around early Friday morning. Winds, heavy rains, and high waves should be expected in the region, especially along the coast.

We'll have another update later today.

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