Tuesday, October 1, 2013

Tropical Storm Fitow (Quedan) Update #2

Issued (1230 UTC) 830pm PhT 100113

Tropical Storm Fitow (Bagyong Quedan) continues to intensify as it moves across the Philippine Sea. The storm center was last located approximately 1,120km east northeast of Manila. Maximum sustained winds are now at 85kph with gusts of up to 110kph. TS Fitow is moving north northwestward at 15kph.

IR Image from FNMOC

Latest satellite image shows convection has increased and become more organized as bands continue to wrap around the circulation. Outflow channels are also improving as upper-level conditions in the region become more conducive. Furthermore, weak wind shear and warm sea-surface temperatures contribute to the good environment that Fitow is currently in.

We expect TS Fitow to continue moving generally northward in the next two days, intensifying along the way. The favorable conditions along its path will promote continued intensification and we could even see Fitow become a Typhoon within the next 36 hours.

Forecast tracks remain sketchy at this time as we're still seeing some disagreements among the computer models. However, we are becoming more confident that Fitow will track northward, passing east of Okinawa by Friday and Saturday as a strong Typhoon.

We'll have another update tomorrow morning.

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