Monday, September 30, 2013

Tropical Storm Fitow (Quedan) Update #1

Issued (0030 UTC) 830am PhT 100113

The newly-formed Tropical Cyclone continues to consolidate and intensify this morning. Tropical Storm Fitow (Bagyong Quedan) is moving across the Philippine Sea and was last located approximately 800km east northeast of Virac, Catanduanes or about 1,140km east of Manila. Maximum sustained winds are at 75kph with gusts of up to 95kph. TS Fitow is moving north northwestward at 10kph.

IR Image from FNMOC

Latest satellite image shows convective activity has increased. Furthermore, curved banding can be seen as it tries to wrap around the circulation center. Outflow is present although the poleward channel is still somewhat weak. Nevertheless, the warm sea surface temperatures and weak wind shear should allow Fitow to continue intensifying over the next few days.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Due to the large disparity among the computer models, we have a low confidence with our current Forecast Track. However, we do think Fitow/Quedan will continue moving northward under the influence of a high pressure ridge. It should also continue intensifying and could even become a typhoon in less than two days.

By Friday and Saturday, computer models begin to diverge greatly with some taking Fitow into Okinawa while some models take it towards Kyushu in Mainland Japan. We are leaning more towards the right-track camp of the GFS and ECMWF and are forecasting Fitow to move east of Okinawa. However, please do note that this forecast is still very much uncertain and many shifts can still happen. We suggest continued monitoring on the developments of this system.

We'll have another update later today.

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