Tuesday, October 1, 2013

Tropical Storm Fitow (Quedan) #3

Issued (0030 UTC) 830am PhT 100213

Tropical Storm Fitow (Bagyong Quedan) continues to show signs of improvement as it moves across the Philippine Sea. The storm was last located approximately 1,100km east northeast of Manila or about 1,050km south southeast of Okinawa. Maximum sustained winds are up to 95kph with gusts of up to 120kph. TS Fitow is moving northward at 15kph.

IR Image from FNMOC

Latest satellite image shows the strong convection has expanded and is trying to wrap fully around the circulation center. Radial outflow has also become more pronounced this morning. Microwave analysis also hints at the beginning of an eyewall formation and we could probably see Fitow be upgraded into a Typhoon as early as by tonight. The favorable conditions in the region will certainly help Fitow continue intensifying over the next few days.

Computer models are starting to converge with the track forecast although we're still seeing some disagreements as we move into day 3 and 4. Some models are still taking Fitow on a northwestward trajectory towards Eastern China while some are taking the system towards Kyushu in Mainland Japan. What we are starting to become confident on is proximity of Fitow within Okinawa by Friday and Saturday. The island may get some typhoon-force winds along with bands of light to moderate on those days.

We'll have another update later today with our latest Forecast Track.

No comments:

Post a Comment