Typhoon Pabuk Update #4

Issued (01 UTC) 9am PhT 092413
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Pabuk has intensified into a Typhoon this morning as it moves across the Pacific. The storm was last located approximately 200km northwest of Iwo To or about 1,100km south of Tokyo. Maximum sustained winds have increased to 120kph with gusts of up to 150kph. Typhoon Pabuk is moving northwestward at 15kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows the center of Pabuk continuing to consolidate with strong convection now wrapping around the entire circulation. Strong winds of up to 130kph along with heavy rains were recorded in Iwo To last night as the eye just passed west of there. Stormy conditions persist across Iwo To and the rest of Ogasawara Islands today but should start to taper off by tomorrow.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Typhoon Pabuk will continue to move northwestward, slowly intensifying along the way. It should reach its peak intensity of just below Category 2 status by tomorrow morning. Cooler sea temperatures will be offset by the excellent poleward outflow allowing Pabuk to maintain typhoon intensity up through Thursday morning. A mid-latitude trough that will be moving from Eastern Asia will steer Pabuk to the northeast away from Mainland Japan. We're not expecting any significant effects from Pabuk except high waves along the coast of Honshu.

IR Image from NOAA

Meanwhile, a monsoon trough is triggering areas of widespread rains. One area impacted by the monsoon is Luzon where some areas have seen up to 200mm of rain in the past two days causing flooding and landslides. Even Metro Manila wasn't spared and the government was forced to cancel classes and work in many municipalities.

Right now, the coverage and intensity of the rains have lessened. However, the possibility of scattered raisn still exist across Central and Southern Luzon and even parts of Visayas. The potential cyclone formation in the next 5 days could enhance another round of rain showers across the country so we'll have to continue watching the tropics.

We'll have another update later today.