Monday, September 23, 2013

Tropical Storm Pabuk Update #3

Issued (1230 UTC) 830pm PhT 092313

Tropical Storm Pabuk continues to intensify and is now nearing Typhoon-status. The center was last located approximately 70km west of Iwo To. Maximum sustained winds have increased to 110kph with gusts of up to 140kph. TS Pabuk is moving north northwestward at 15kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows the center of Pabuk looking more like an eye with good convective banding wrapping around it. Excellent poleward outflow, weak wind shear, and warm sea surface temperatures are helping the system intensify in the past 24 hours. We expect Pabuk to be upgraded into a Typhoon later tomorrow.

Pabuk is currently moving just west of Iwo To. The airport in the island recorded winds of up to 120kph along with a minimum pressure reading of 965hPa indicative of the intensity of this storm. Pabuk will continue to bring stormy conditions across Iwo To and the rest of Ogasawara Islands tonight and into tomorrow.

Pabuk will continue moving northwestward and is forecast to eventually recurve to the northeast in response to a mid-latitude trough. This trough will steer Pabuk clear of Mainland Japan.

We'll have another update later today.

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