Saturday, September 21, 2013

Tropical Storm Pabuk Update #2

Issued (01 UTC) 9am PhT 092213

Tropical Storm Pabuk continues to intensify as it moves across the Pacific. The center was last located approximately 420km southeast of Iwo To, Japan or about 900km north northwest of Guam. Maximum sustained winds have increased to 95kph with gusts of up to 120kph. TS Pabuk is moving northwestward at 20kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows a consolidating cyclone with tight convective banding wrapping around the center making it look like an eye has formed. Pabuk remains in an area of favorable conditions with weak wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures; poleward outflow is also improving aided by good upper-level environment.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Tropical Storm Pabuk is forecast to continue intensifying and could even become a typhoon by as early as tomorrow. It will be moving close to the island of Iwo To/Iwo Jima by tomorrow and will bring stormy conditions there through Tuesday. Pabuk is forecast to recurve to the northeast by Wednesday due to a mid-latitude trough that will be moving across Eastern Asia. This trough should pick up Pabuk and steer it clear from the Main Japanese Islands.

We'll have another update later today.

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