Saturday, September 21, 2013

Typhoon Usagi (Odette) Update #11

Issued (0230 UTC) 1030am PhT 092213

Typhoon Usagi (Bagyong Odette) has maintained its Category 3 status as it leaves the Philippine Area of Responsibility and heads for Southern China. The eye of Usagi was last located approximately 350km east southeast of Hong Kong; 530km northwest of Laoag City, Philippines; or about 540km southwest of Taipei, Taiwan. Maximum sustained winds are at 185kph with gusts of up to 230kph. Typhoon Usagi is moving west northwestward at 20kph.

PAGASA has finally dropped all Signal Warnings in the Philippines as Usagi has left the PAR. Meanwhile, Hong Kong Observatory has raised Strong Wind Signal No. 3 in preparation for the approaching typhoon. Residents in the region are urged to begin making precautionary measures against strong winds and heavy rains. Click HERE for the official HKO Website.

China Meteorological Administration has issued Red Warning for Typhoon Usagi across Guangdong for the possibility of strong damaging winds as well as the possibility of widespread flooding and storm surges along the coast. Click HERE for the official CMA Website.

IR Image from NOAA

Latest satellite image shows the small eye of Usagi looking somewhat better this morning. The eyewall replacement cycle seems to have completed although we're no longer expecting intensification due to lower sea temperatures and the presence of concentric eyewalls. Usagi should start to affect Southern China later today as its outer rain bands continue to push onshore.

Radar Image from CMA

Latest radar image from Guangdong shows the eye of Usagi moving closer to shore. Outer rain bands are nearing the area and will begin bringing scattered to widespread light to moderate rains along with strong gusty winds. Storm surge should also threaten the coast with high waves brought by Usagi. We're expecting up to 250mm of rain through the next 24 hours across Southern Guangdong. Even Hong Kong could see similar rainfall accumulations in the next 24 to 48 hours. For the latest radar images and weather forecasts from China, click HERE

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Typhoon Usagi is forecast to maintain its present intensity as it moves closer to China. It is forecast to make landfall in Guangdong Province, east of Hong Kong, by early tomorrow morning (Monday) as a strong and dangerous Category 2 Typhoon. It will then move westward passing just north of Hong Kong and will likely bring strong winds of up to 180kph across the metropolitan region. Usagi is forecast to rapidly weaken as it moves farther inland. It should be downgraded to a Tropical Storm by Tuesday and will continue to lose strength as it moves into Northern Vietnam.

We'll have another update later today.

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