Thursday, September 12, 2013

Tropical Storm Man-Yi Update #1

Issued (02 UTC) 10am PhT 091313

A new cyclone has formed in the Western Pacific Ocean. Tropical Storm Man-Yi is currently slowly consolidating as it moves near the Mariana Islands. The storm center was last located approximately 930km north northwest of Guam or about 1,640km east southeast of Okinawa, Japan. Maximum sustained winds are around 65kph with gusts of up to 85kph. TS Man-Yi is moving west northwestward at 15kph.

IR Image from NOAA

Latest satellite image shows a very large cyclone that is consolidating across the Pacific. Strong convection continues to form although the presence of multiple low level centers is hindering intensification. Wind shear is weak and poleward outflow is excellent and we expect favorable conditions to persist in the coming days.

Tropical Storm Man-Yi will continue to intensify at a slow pace due to its large size. It'll struggle consolidating in the near-term but we should start to see a more consistent pace in intensification once the cyclone improves its core. There is a small chance of Man-Yi becoming a typhoon in the coming days especially as it becomes more organized.

Latest computer models show an early recurvature which could put Man-Yi towards the main islands of Japan by this weekend. The track will be dependent on an approaching trough from Eastern Asia. The strength and speed of this trough will determine how close Man-Yi will get towards Japan.

We'll have another update later today.

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