Friday, September 13, 2013

Tropical Storm Man-Yi Update #2

Issued (1230 UTC) 830pm PhT 091313

Tropical Storm Man-Yi continues to slowly consolidate as it moves across the Philippine Sea. It was last located approximately 1,150km north northwest of Guam or about 1,350km east southeast of Okinawa. Maximum sustained winds remain at 65kph with gusts of up to 85kph. TS Man-Yi is moving west northwestward at 15kph.

IR Image from NOAA

Latest satellite image shows a large cyclone embedded along a monsoon-gyre that continues to spin near the Marianas Islands. This gyre is bringing rains across Guam and nearby islands. Tropical Storm Man-Yi, itself, is somewhat struggling to consolidate due to its size and also the presence of multiple low-level centers. Conditions remain favorable, though, and we expect more intensification as soon as Man-Yi sorts out its core.

Computer models remain in somewhat good agreement with a track consensus that will take Man-Yi towards the main islands of Japan this weekend. The chances of it becoming a typhoon are lower, though, due to the expected slow intensification. Nevertheless, the large size of Man-Yi could still prove dangerous as the wind field will be larger and the rainfall coverage will be greater than that of a normal cyclone. Stormy conditions could start affecting Shikoku and Honshu beginning Sunday.

We'll have another update tomorrow morning.

No comments:

Post a Comment