Friday, August 16, 2013

Tropical Update (TD Maring)

Issued (00 UTC) 8am PhT 081713

There is a potential for Tropical Cyclone development in the Western Pacific over the next 2 days. In fact, one of them has already been upgraded to a Tropical Depression by PAGASA. The other disturbance east of Okinawa could also develop soon.

First, the Low Pressure Area (Invest 98W) east of Taiwan continues to slowly develop and is already being classified as a Tropical Depression by both JMA and PAGASA; with the latter assigning the local name of "Bagyong Maring". This TD/LPA is located approximately 270km northeast of Basco, Batanes or about 470km south southeast of Taipei, Taiwan. Wind speeds are around 40 to 60kph and the system is currently moving south southeastward at about 5kph.

PAGASA has raised Public Storm Warning Signal #1 for Batanes Group of Islands. The islands should expect scattered light to moderate rains along with gusty winds for the next 24 hours.

IR Image from NOAA

The other disturbance (Invest 99W) that we're watching is located approximately 240km east northeast of the island of Okinawa. Wind speeds are around 40 to 60kph as well and the system is currently moving west northwest at 10kph. It could affect the Ryukyu Islands later today bringing scattered light to moderate rains along with gusty winds.

Due to the proximity of the two disturbances, there is a potential for them to interact (Fujiwhara Effect) and could even merge to become one cyclone as what most models are showing right now. Furthermore, we do expect at least one of these system to further develop in the coming days due to the somewhat favorable conditions in the Pacific. Areas along the Southern Japanese Islands, Eastern China, Taiwan, and Northern Philippines should continue to monitor the developments of these low pressure areas.

We'll have another update later this afternoon.

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