Thursday, August 15, 2013

Tropical Update

Issued (03 UTC) 11am PhT 081613

We are currently watching three (!) tropical disturbances affecting the Asia-Pacific Region. One of them is the remnant of Tropical Cyclone Utor and is continuing to affect provinces in Southern China. The other two disturbances are located near Taiwan and the Southern Japanese Islands; both have the potential to become cyclones in the coming days.

IR Image from NOAA

The remnants of Tropical Cyclone Utor continue to spin across Southern China, bringing widespread rains across the provinces of Guangdong, Hunan, and Fujian. Up to 100mm have fallen again in the past 24 hours in addition to the over 200mm that fell last weekend. More rains are expected over the next few days across the region.

Invest 98W is located just east of Taiwan. The low-level circulation is fully-exposed and the disturbance, as a whole, isn't vertically stacked yet which is what you would typically see in the early stages of cyclone development. JTWC is giving it a LOW chance of development as computer models continue to show slight strengthening over the next 24 to 48 hours. It could, however, bring scattered rains across Northern Luzon and the islands of Batanes.

Finally, we have Invest 99W east of Okinawa which is also showing some improvements. Convection has been flaring and upper-level environment looks conducive for development. Computer models suggest that 99W and 98W may merge this weekend to become a large and moderately-strong cyclone.

Please do note that the confidence in the forecasts regarding 99W and 98W remains low. We will have to continue monitoring these two disturbances and see how they develop in the next one to two days.

We'll have another update later this afternoon.

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