Saturday, August 17, 2013

TD 12W (Maring) and TD 13W Update

Issued (1330 UTC) 930pm PhT 081713

Two Tropical Depressions formed in the Western Pacific today. One is near Taiwan and the Philippines while the other is near Okinawa.

The first one is Tropical Depression 12W (Bagyong Maring) which was last located approximately 420km east of Basco, Batanes or about 670km southeast of Taipei, Taiwan. Maximum sustained winds are around 55kph with gusts of up to 75kph. It is currently moving east southeastward at 15kph.

PAGASA has dropped Signal #1 from Batanes Islands.

TD 12W (Maring) is forecast to slowly intensify and could become a Tropical Storm by tomorrow. It is currently directly interacting with another tropical depression (13W) to its northwest. TD 12W is forecast to become the dominant cyclone and "kill" the other depression in the coming days. Right now, computer models are showing a recurving track back to the northwest and could impact Taiwan by early next week.

IR Image from NOAA

Tropical Depression 13W, on the other hand, is spinning near the Ryukyu Islands and was last located approximately 220km north of Okinawa. Maximum sustained winds are at 45kph with gusts of up to 65kph. TD 13W is moving westward at 15kph.

TD 13W brought scattered rains across the Ryukyus today and could bring another round of showers tomorrow. It should also turn southward due to the influence of TD 12W. As mentioned above, we expect 13W to either be "killed" or be absorbed by TD 12W in the coming days.

The proximity of these two cyclones to each other is making the forecasts to be very hard and so right now, our confidence is somewhat low. However, we do have good support from the computer models; we just have to wait and see how it pans out.

We'll have another update tomorrow morning.

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